What Kind Of Day Has It Been

• Tahrir Square swelled again with protesters today as demonstrator rejected limited reforms offered by the Mubarak regime and the release of Wael Ghonim buoyed their spirits.


• Four days of border clashes between the armed forces of Cambodia and Thailand have gone largely unnoticed. 


• More food price worries.


• More cleavages between the Republican Old Guard and Tea Partiers.

Professional Candidates & the Republican Primary

Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, John Huntsman, and Newt Gingrich are all considered potential candidates for the Republican primary for president in 2012.  In Gallup poll done mid-November, Romney, Palin, Huckabee, and Gingrich were at the top of the Republican field.  What do they all have in common?  They don't currently serve in an elected position.


This has been a remarkable contour of the potential Republican field in 2012.  I had to check Wikipedia to remind myself, but during the 2008 presidential primaries, there were eight Democrats that participated in primary debates.  All held elected office while they were campaigning.  Conversely, twelve Republicans participated in primary debates.  Seven of the twelve did not hold an elected office at the time.  I don't know what it means, entirely.


If I were to guess (and given my record of political handicapping, I shouldn't) I would suspect it reflects the fractious nature of the modern conservative movement and the malaise establishment Republicans feel towards the Tea Party.  What was once lampooned has become fact.  The Republican Party doesn't have any leadership.  They have been able to unite around saying "No" to every question or proposal Obama makes, but beyond that things are a mess.  That can change, as there is an eternity of news cycles between now and the first primary, but right now things aren't well within the party (as evidenced when Glenn Beck and Bill Kristol publicly spar).


What do the above professional candidates have to offer to salve the party?  I'm not really sure.  With the exception of Amb. Huntsman, they have pretty established name recognition.  Their brand is pretty well known among Republicans (and the public) and opinions on each individual are pretty well established.  There aren't many people sitting on the fence if you ask them about Sarah Palin, and I think that's a liability for her and the rest of the professional candidates.  It can be done.  Eisenhower, Nixon, and Reagan (who had a centennial celebration over the weekend he wasn't alive for, but that's another post) all won the nomination when they did not hold an elected position.  However, only Reagan defeated a first-term president.  It's worth noting, the president he defeated was dealing with the Iranian hostage crisis and a cardigan addiction.


Maybe the second half of President Obama's term will present a lingering wound, akin to the Iranian hostage crisis?  Maybe President Obama will develop an unhealthy liking for cashmere?  Barring either of those instances, I would put my money on a Republican that holds elected office right now to win the nomination.  Of course, as Chris Cillizza reminded us yesterday, there are no actual candidates for the Republican primary at this point.

Opportunities in Egypt

As events have unfolded in Egypt over the last two weeks, the U.S. position has been undergoing near constant revision. By the end of last week, however, the United States had apparently gotten ahead of the curve and was no longer subject to accusations of being merely reactive—and, worse, reacting a day behind the events on the ground. Over the weekend, the United States—and other Western governments—apparently settled on a position of supporting the immediate removal of Hosni Mubarak from power and the establishment of an interim government under the newly appointed Egyptian Vice President, Omar Suleiman. The protesters occupying Tahrir Square are unmoved by this proposition and Western support for it.

The appeal to Western governments of the staggered transition from Mubarak to a Mubarakite interim government to eventual elections is obvious. It promises the introduction of a measure of stability and certainty to a tumultuous situation that has upset U.S. foreign policy, flummoxed Israel, and contributed to steadily rising oil prices. Moreover, the apparent U.S. position follows a long history of U.S. policymakers pursuing stability. However, too often in the post-war era the pursuit of stability has come at the expense of U.S. values—as is likely the case here.

This long history of sacrificing values—democracy, liberty, freedom—for the sake of stability and ease of policymaking, has driven the U.S. to support autocratic regimes. It has also left many people with the indelible perception, rightly or wrongly, that the United States serves to oppress them—or at least support their oppressors—particularly in the Arab world.

This linkage between the United States and perceptions of oppression is one of the great strategic threats the United States faces. It has enabled radical Islamists to present an effective and largely unchallenged narrative.

The unrest in Egypt presents the United States with the opportunity to fundamentally reshape its perception in the Arab world. The simple act of lending the protesters in Tahrir Square full throated support is the first step along this path. Such support may not radically alter the fortunes of the protesters—Mubark is likely to go in the near term, and the Western-supported interim government is likely to come about regardless of Western support. However, the impact of the United States standing foursquare with the forces of democracy and liberty is likely to be regional and transformative.

The Short List

• In Egypt, Vice President Suleiman has announced that a plan and timetable for the transition of power has been formulated.  Protesters in Tahrir Square remain, and no word yet from opposition groups.


• Wikileaks, founder Julian Assange, is fighting extradition to Sweden in connection with charges of sexual misconduct.  Part of his defense is a claim that he fears rendition by the U.S. government if he is extradited to Sweden.


• Volkswagen employees have negotiated for a substantial increase to their share of profits.  For some time, the union had accepted modest pay increases for greater job security.


• "Republican delaying tactics, slow White House nominations and a dysfunctional Senate confirmation process," have lead the federal judicial system to a crisis point.


• The Economist gives a view on the ground of Pakistan today versus five years ago.

What Kind Of Day Has It Been

• Rep. Jane Harman is leaving Congress to become the head of the Woodrow Wilson Center.
• Glenn Beck attacked Bill Kristol, accusing Kristol of betraying conservatism.
• Official results from last month's South Sudan secession referendum have been released: more than 98% of ballots were cast for independence. Hours before results were released, President al-Bashir of Sudan declared he would heed the referendum's results.
• Protesters in Egypt remain in Tahrir Square despite yesterday's negotiations, continuing to pressure the teetering Mubarak regime. The Mubarak regime increased public sector pay by 15% today in an effort to cow the protesters. 

The Short List

• Protests in Egypt enter their third week as the protesters try to keep momentum.  Vice President Suleiman has held meetings with around fifty Egyptian leaders, including members of the Muslim Brotherhood.  The view of Egypt from Iran is contradictory as Ayatollah Khameni says the protests are a reflection of anti-Americanism, but the remnants of the Iranian opposition have petitioned to demonstrate in solidarity with the Tunisian and Egyptian people.  Meanwhile, The Economist considers which member of the Arab League is most likely to be next in the string of protests.  **Editorial Note:  I'm encouraged that discussions of transition are underway.  It would seem to suggest we won't face a situation with a power vacuum.**


• South Sudanese troops  mutinied when told to redeploy north, killing fifty people.  This could likely be the first instance of violence as Sudan is set to separate.  President Bashir says he will accept South Sudan's secession.


• The U.S. is arming local militias in Afghanistan, picking sides in a way that would foment resentment.


• AOL will buy The Huffington Post for $315 million, $300 million in cash.  If someone would like to make an offer to buy DCExile, please said offer in the comment section.


• President Obama sat down with Bill O'Reily at the White House last night before schmoozing with J.Lo.

What Kind Of Day Has It Been

• Mubarak's end seems closer, as current a former members of his regime join the protests in Tahrir Square.


• Ginny Thomas, lobbyist.


• In other horrifying news, Sharron Angle went to Iowa.


• The federal government will get first crack at Jared Loughner.

Budget Proposals - Reckless Plans, Real Consequences

House Republicans have proposed $32 billion in spending cuts for FY 2011, on balance it would mean a $40 billion cut for non-security agencies.  If enacted, these would be deep cuts, likely to be highly disruptive to the government’s ability to deliver services in 2012, but there are other proposals out there that make the House Republican plan appear timid by comparison. The Republican Study Committee has proposed a plan that will cut $100 billion in FY 2011.  Meanwhile, Senator Rand Paul has offered up a plan that would cut $500 billion.

Some of the line items from these two proposals:
-  Cut the Department of Education budget by 83% (Rand Paul)
-  Elimination of the Department of Energy (Rand Paul)
-  Elimination of the Department of Housing and Urban Development (Rand Paul)
-  Cut the Department of State Budget by 71% (Rand Paul)
-  Hire one new federal employee for every two that retire until at least a 15% reduction in the federal workforce is achieved (Republican Study Committee)
-  Eliminate Amtrak subsidies (Rand Paul and Republican Study Committee)
-  Eliminate the subsidy to the Washington Metropolitan Transit Authority (Republican Study Committee)
-  Eliminate Corporation for Public Broadcasting subsidy (Republican Study Group)

These are pretty extreme proposals.  I don’t say “extreme” to suggest they are irrelevant, but when you take a chainsaw to the federal programs like this it’s a big deal.  As a corollary, if Congressional Democrats came out and said the State Department budget needs increased by 71% in FY 2011, that would also be extreme.  In considering the extreme nature of the proposals, there are two mutually exclusive dimensions to consider.

The first dimension is the more philosophical question of the proper role and scope of the federal government.  This is an important debate, and the short blips that both the Rand Paul plan and the Republican Study Committee plan provide regarding their proposed cuts aren’t on their face objectionable.  If anything, they help stake out the philosophical baseline they bring to any budget debate as it relates to the role of government.  Let’s debate the role of government, or rather let’s continue that debate.  It is a worthy endeavor.

The second dimension, and the one I take issue with, is the practical question of how these proposed cuts would be operationalized.  What would it really mean to eliminate the Department of Energy?  How many people would be out of work at a time we are already facing 9% unemployment?  What would happen to metro fares if the WMATA subsidy was eliminated?  Would the cost of providing transportation benefits to employees raise to a point untenable to be maintained?  What impact would the increased price have on the thousands of federal workers who use the WMATA system every day?  What happens to America’s diplomatic capacity if the State Department budget takes a 71% haircut?  I don’t mean these questions to be snarky, but legitimately the impact of “here one year, gone the next” cuts like this would be nothing short of cataclysmic.

Could the private sector, charities, and the etheral market forces adjust?  Would Amtrak and WMATA learn to run profitably without subsidies?  That depends on who you ask, but what is obvious is that even if the market can adjust, it won’t happen neatly at the end of September 2011 when FY 2012 starts.  It will likely take years, but the plans don’t account for the transition.  There’s no plan for October 1, 2011.

This is dangerous legislating.  It makes for a great headline and some shallow credibility about “being serious about deficits,” but operationally it’s reckless, negligent, and cataclysmic.  In our effort to get a budget deficit under control in the long term, some hard decisions will need made.  Many federal programs will need to learn to do more with less, some may need eliminated entirely, but the proposals advanced by Rand Paul and the Republican Study Committee aren’t serious.  They are proposals rooted in ideological preferences, not practical considerations of the consequences.  

Thankfully, the odds either the Rand Paul or the Republican Study Committee plan gains much traction are low if the remarks from Republican leaders are any indication (though apparently tax increases, Social Security, Medicare, and defense seem largely off the table), but that doesn’t excuse the plans’ advocates for being reckless with their responsibility to govern, and it doesn’t mean the cuts House Republicans are proposing won’t have uncertain, but real consequences for Americans.


UPDATE: From an avid reader, DOE employed 16,207 federal employees and 91, 294 contract employees in FY2009.

The Short List

• Massive anti-Mubarak protests continue in Egypt.  NYT gives us a visual of the situation yesterday.  The Muslim Brotherhood has declared they will not field a candidate in a new presidential election.  The Obama administration has suggested Mubarak step down and recently appointed Vice President, Omar Suleiman (interviewed yesterday), take charge of a transitional government.  Pro-Mubarak protesters have targeted journalists in recent days. 


• Pakistan's ruling party, Pakistan People's Party, is set to dissolve and resize the government's cabinet.


• A drought in China could put more strain on an already jittery food market.


• A report on the Foot Hood attack, released by the Senate, faults the Army and the FBI.


• The Economist considers Germany's "new Wirtschaftswunder" as their economy has been doing remarkably well.

What Kind Of Day Has It Been

• Protesters in Egypt came back out today despite violent clashes over night. Thugs came back out, too, and apparently engaged in coordinated attacks on journalists. Politico claims that Egypt's unrest is splitting up the alliance between U.S. neoconservatives and Israel.
• Meanwhile, the Palestine Papers have been completely eclipsed.
• The President best Palin but loses to Huck in South Carolina.
• Rep. Giffords' husband says she is improving.

Egypt - What DCExile is Reading

• Michael Rubin at America Enterprise Institute says the White House "must stay one step ahead of the [Muslim] Brotherhood."


• Lawrence Pintak, writing at Foreign Policy, is jumping the gun labeling the situation in Egypt "The Al Jazeera Revolution" a bit in declaring, "The era in which government broadcasters can manufacture reality is as dead as the age of the fax. "


• Fareed Zakaria, writing at Time, gives the best assessment of what's to come in Egypt, admitting the level of uncertainty.  He notes that Egypt may be more inclined to result in an "illiberal democracy" more akin to Russia, then Iran.  He also notes that Islamist populism is an issue because under authoritarian regimes, "[t]he one place they could not shut down was the mosque, so it became the center of political activism and discourse, and Islam became the language of opposition."
  

The Short List

• Overnight saw sustained violence in Egypt.  There are reports that pro-Mubarak demonstrators were bused in and some were paid to demonstrate in Mubarak's favor.  The army stood down and let the violence happen, but appear to have begun to insert themselves between pro- and anti-Mubarak demonstrators.  As the U.S. reexamines its relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood, the first inkling of a partisan rift starts to take form.


• Iran could make nuclear weapons in one to two years according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies.


• Former Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, is releasing a memoir and remains largely unapologetic.


• The Tea Party have set their sights on ousting Dick Lugar (R-IN) in 2012.  Sen. Lugar supported the New START treaty and the DREAM Act.


• Two British companies are making it harder to steal...just about anything.

What Kind Of Day Has It Been

• A violent one. 1500 people wounded in clashes between pro- and anti-Mubarak protesters today. Anti-Mubarak protesters have stayed in Tahrir Square and even driven pro-Mubarak forces away, apparently winning the night if not the day. DCExile's take on the clashes available here. Al-Jazeera's live stream of Cairo here and live blog here.
• Some Sudanese are attempting to emulate the risings in Tunisia and Egypt.
• Fred Karger, Republican Strategist, Gay Rights Activist is making waves in New Hampshire. Note the article's narrative about Krager ("the candidate") not being able to find the appropriate lane of the road. If this guy survives to become more than an also ran, this is the sort of initial story narrative that will be repeated in every article about his candidacy.
• Obama over Palin in Arizona.
• The Kepler Planet Finder has identified 1235 possible planets in our neighborhood.

Aggregated - Egypt Commentary

Links to what I've been reading on the situation in Egypt:

• Ed Husain says to bring in the Muslim Brotherhood.
• Shadi Hamid encourages the U.S. to get past its "Islamist Dilemma."
• Isobel Coleman considers the economic challenges Egypt (and any new Egyptian government) faces today and in the future.

Test of Wills

As autocrats in the wider Middle East make preemptive concessions, the Old Survivor finally responds. The Mubarak regime seemingly inexplicably restored both internet access and Al Jazeera’s broadcasts today. The restoration of both coincided with the appearance of approximately 10,000 pro-Mubarak demonstrators in Tahrir Square—some of whom are apparently plain clothes policemen. As well as a warning from the Egyptian military that protestors should restore normalcy.

The pro-Mubarak demonstrators evidently had to—and were allowed to—pass through Egyptian army barricades. Shortly thereafter, clashes broke out between pro- and anti-Mubarak demonstrators. Then, into the crowd, rode men on horses and camels, beating anti-Mubarak demonstrators. 

The timing of these events is not coincidental. Mubarak is on his way out but is clearly trying to set the terms of his exit--and by turning both news and the internet on, he has assured that Egypt and the world will see that he is still in control, despite the throngs in the street.

The events thus far today indicate that the Egyptian military has reached some sort of agreement with Mubarak as to the timing and order of his exit. These signs do not point to the establishment of genuine democracy. But neither do they signal the defeat of the protest movement. It is likely that, should the opposition not break in the face of the first attack, the Mubarak regime will ratchet up the force and the level of violence over the coming days.

Tuesday’s march was an incredible demonstration of strength but the week-old uprising now faces its first real test.

UPDATE: Perhaps the most important headline you'll see today:

The Short List

• Update on Egypt.  There are reports of pro-government demonstrators clashing with opposition protesters.  President Obama gave a brief address telling Mubarak "the status quo is not sustainable."


• Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh said neither he, not his son would not run for president in 2013.  President Saleh has been in office for 32 years.


• A mental heath specialist recommended that Wikileaks source, Pfc. Bradley Manning, should not be deployed to Iraq, but his immediate commanders did not heed this advice.


•  Punxsutawney Phil did not see his shadow, which means an early spring.  Surely of little comfort to people from Dallas, through Chicago, on to Boston experiencing extreme winter weather.

What Kind Of Day Has It Been

• The DNC has settled on Charlotte, NC for the site of the 2012 Democratic National Convention. The selection of Charlotte is obviously a bid by the nascent Obama reelect campaign to hold onto North Carolina--a state Pres. Obama became the first Democrat since Jimmy Carter to win.


• More news that the U.S. armed forces is threatened by the general unhealthiness of the United States. The Army recently revised its training and nutrition guidelines for new recruits because so many are overweight or generally unathletic after childhoods spent on the couch rather than outdoors.


• The March of Millions in Cairo took place today despite the Mubarak regime's efforts to prevent people from reaching Cairo. Al Jazeera English reports that more than a million protesters attended the rally. Protesters began erecting tents in Tahrir Square and there are reports that a football tournament has been setup to keep protesters entertained during coming days' protests. The U.S. has ordered all non-essential personnel out of the country. Mubarak says he will not seek reelection. I would wager that Mubarak's reign is over--what comes next is a good question--the New York Times reports the U.S. is sizing up Mohammed ElBaradei.


• King Abdullah II of Jordan, which has witnessed some protests since the Tunisian revolution began, preemptively dismissed his cabinet. The Hashemite Kingdom has defended itself ruthlessly and effectively in the past.

Best Outcomes in Egypt

Sunday morning, watching Meet the Press, my roommate turned to me and asked, “What’s the best outcome in Egypt?”  My initial response was a question back about who’s perspective she wanted to look at it.  So in this post, I’m going to consider the situation and the best outcome for a few different constituencies.  For a primer, Steven Cook has a great post up at CFR that identifies many of the same players I do.

Hosni Mubarak
This is the easy one.  For President Mubarak, the best outcome is to somehow retain power, give up no ground on democratic reforms, and essentially put down this insurrection.  His best outcome is a return to the prior status quo.  Now that seems increasingly unlikley, so a second best option is to grant limited democratic reforms in exchange for the support of the army.  He’d be in power, but diminished and likely be able to slowly transition out.  His third best option at this point is to simply make it out alive.  Of course, as Will Wilkinson points out, Mubarak is a survivor.

The Egyptian Army
With the decision by the army, at least as I write this, that they will not fire on the protesters.  This would seem to confirm the interesting space the army holds in Egyptian society, where it has benefited from the patronage of Mubarak, but also has the respect of the Egyptian populace.  I would not be at all surprised if the army brass are extracting concessions from Mubarak now, or, in their best scenario, they are inserting themselves into a settlement that would give them temporary control while a transition government is assembled.  They could move independently to restore law and order and under that guise assume control without a settlement.  If they are given control they could extract a high cost to relinquish it.

The Muslim Brotherhood
There is a lot of commentary out there that doesn’t believe the Muslim Brotherhood is in a strong position to gain from this unrest, but I think that commentary is misguided.  They didn’t start the protests, but they are out there giving protesters water, developing a constituency.  They have been the regime’s foil for pretty much all of Mubarak’s three decades in power, and were really the original Islamist group inspiring all manner of off shoots.  While they don’t have the power or organization to seize power, if the protests drag out and the vacuum remains unfilled I could seem them stepping into the void a la the Iranian revolution of 1979.  This would likely be the best outcome they could hope for.  Though I agree with Matt Steinglass that this situation is quite different then the one in Iran in 1979.  Meanwhile, Les Gelb isn’t optimistic about the Muslim Brotherhood.

The United States
As you might expect, given Mubarak’s client status, our best option is Mubarak’s second best.  It’s clear from the media appearances of administation officials that the US doesn’t want Egypt to return to the prior status quo.  They want a peaceful transition to something closer to democracy in the country, but  it doesn’t do us any good to have Mubarak thrown out entirely.  He and his high level lieutenants give the US some connection to the transition and the only shot the US has to influence the final outcome.  Let me also say, I agree with Matthew Duss posting at The American Prospect, the US has to work with (or at the very least not undermine) Islamist political parties, particularly parties that demonstrate a commitment to human rights.  That has not been the traditional outlook of the Muslim Brotherhood, but power can be a moderating venture.

The Egyptian People
There is no good outcome for the Egyptian people.  In the immediate, they could be looking at sustained weeks or even months of a breakdown of law and order.  The problems they face economically will take decades to solve.  Countries without a tradition of democracy have a hard time with the transition and often ineffectual governments spin like revolving doors providing little comfort to the people.  The best outcome is modest democratic reform that allows the nation to get used to the practice and hope that the this leads to broader liberalization of the electoral system.

So that’s what I see as the best outcomes for a number of groups.  These predictions are subject to change given the situation on the ground, but I think there are good chances they’ll hold.  It’s disappointing that the Egyptian people won’t come out of this better, but I just don’t think that’s how it will happen.

The Short List

• Update on Egypt.  The first notion of who the opposition groups are is coming to light, as they demand Mubarak resign before talks begin.  Turkey's Prime Minister Erdogan implores Mubarak to reform and to "listen to the shouting of the people."  In the U.S., there is a rare moment of bipartisanship on the Egypt issue.


• Jordan's King Abdullah II has sacked his prime minister and cabinet in response to protests in that country.


• Red-light cameras save lives and raise revenues according to a new study.


• The Economist reviews a new book looking at why the Middle East fell behind Europe economically.

What Kind Of Day Has It Been

• A Florida district court has ruled that healthcare reform exceeds the bounds of the Commerce Clause and is therefore unConstitutional. Healthcare reform is now 2-2.


• The White House is expecting Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman's resignation so that Huntsman may begin a bid for the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination. Huntsman's nomination was intended to be a follow through on Candidate Obama's pledge to pursue bipartisanship. Like his other pursuits of bipartisanship, this one appears to have come back to bite the President. 


• Protests in Egypt continued today. The Egyptian Army has declared that it will not harm protesters. What is suddenly being called the "Opposition," as if it were cohesive, has called for a "march of millions" on Tuesday. More erstwhile allies of the Mubarak regime are jumping ship with the EU now calling for free and fair elections in Egypt and Gibbs clarified that Sec. Clinton's request for an "orderly transition" means "change."


• And, if you haven't seen it, Fox News can't figure out where Egypt is.

A New Capitalism?

So I was staffing an event at an open building one Saturday, and it happened to be the same Saturday as a World Bank protest (and in the same neighborhood as the World Bank).  This guy wanders in to the registration table with a large binder in his hands.  He wanted to tell us about this new kind of capitalism he had created.  The rich would make the poor rich and the poor would make the rich less rich.  He had a visual of sorts with two triangles overlapping to create a 6-point star.  Leading economists and business leaders had sent him letters telling him how brilliant it was, proving once and for all his ex-wife was wrong to think he was crazy.  I didn’t pay much attention to his ideas as they seemed on the surface a bit contradictory and from a source whose uninvited evangelism only increased my skepticism.  He eventually left and I didn’t think much of it until today.

I was forwarded a google reader item discussing Alex Bogusky, a brand management/advertising guru who had quit his namesake firm to become a consumer advocate.  No one was sure what that meant until last week when he launched COMMON, a brand that is set to spark a “new capitalism.”  I was again skeptical, but I watched the launch video.  Yes, I watched all 64 minutes worth.  

The idea behind COMMON, to my understanding, is to create a social network of entrepreneurs, thinkers, designers, investors and others to rally behind ideas (eventually leading to prototypes, eventually leading to products, ideally) that generate a social good and a business opportunity.  The COMMON part is to give all these ideas (products) a common banner to launch under.  It’s not the same logo, but a brand that has its own equity lending legitimacy to diffuse enterprises.  It’s an interesting idea, but I couldn’t help but feeling I’d heard it before.  I couldn’t help feeling like the only value-add was the brand name and a snazzy new website.

Mr. Borgusky says very early in the presentation “We aren’t communists,” and while I think that’s fair, there is some trust in the commune or collective to help vet and develop these ideas.  I just wonder how well it will work, who will decide what’s ready for investment, and, if money is made, who gets the profits.  I’ve been reading The Net Delusion by Evgeny Morozov and my readings there, coupled with one too many meetings on the utility of social media has me very skeptical.  I think the concept is admirable and the idea more than half-baked, but I don’t know if you can create a business from a community like this.  I don’t know if there truly is this pent-up energy that needs only social networking to unleash it.  I encourage you to take a look at the video and draw your own conclusions (you can skip the first 20 minutes of set-up, I think), but consider me skeptical.

What Happened to Tunisia?

Excitement in the media over the turmoil in Egypt has preempted any and all coverage of Tunisia, which, just two weeks ago, captured the attention of the world. Though former President Zine El Abdine Ben Ali has been ousted and fled the country, matters in the small North African country are far from resolved. In fact, out of the world’s eye, the still inchoate revolution in Tunisia may be just beginning.

A curfew remains in place. Many schools and universities remain closed. Looting persists, as do clashes between protesters and police. And, Sunday, Rachid Ghannouchi, the exiled leader of the yet banned Tunisian Islamist party, Ennahda, returned to Tunisia, where thousands of supporters greeted him at the airport in Tunis.

Ghannouchi, in apparent recognition of the similarities between his return and the 1979 return of Ayatollah Khomeini to Iran, immediately sought to dispel such comparisons in his first interview following his return. However, in contrast to Khomeini’s return to Iran, Ghannouchi and his Ennahda party have reportedly little popular support within Tunisia. Moreover, Ghannouchi has sounded moderate tones in the two weeks since Ben Ali’s ouster. He has called for respect for democracy, women’s rights, and the development of Tunisia.

Yet, it is appropriate for Western observers to approach Ghannouchi’s return with caution. Revolutions are chaotic and unpredictable. Even the Iranian revolution existed in a state of flux from 1978 through 1982. After the Shah’s ouster and Khomeini’s return the first several governments—those established under Bakhtiar and Bazargan—were secular and moderate. Before Khomeini could consolidate power in a quasi-theocracy, he was forced to develop administrative and security functionality (the IRGC) in parallel to those which belonged to the secular state.

The longer uncertainty and insecurity persist, the greater the opportunity for individuals like Ghannouchi to consolidate power. It would be better for the people of Tunisia and for Western interest to have quick elections that would likely advantage the few currently functioning organizations in Tunisia like trade unions. These are more likely to return a moderate, Western-oriented government.

The Short List

• In Egypt, the police have joined the army in the streets, as protesters call for a "march of millions" on Tuesday.  It appears the Egyptian government is lashing out at Al Jazeera, who's coverage of the protests has transfixed the region, by detaining six AJ journalists.  The journalists have since been released.


• The Washington Post reports that Pakistan's nuclear arsenal exceeds 100.


• Indonesia has jailed pop star Ariel over a sex tape scandal.


• India has imprisoned a rights-activist on specious charges.


• Tunisia has fallen off the radar screen.

Haiti Photobook - Hope for Haiti

Good friend of DCExile, Skyler Badenoch, recently published a photo book titled Haiti: Ti Moun Se Riches (Haiti: Our Children are Treasures) of his time in Haiti before, during, and after the earthquake that ravaged an already poor country.  You can buy the book here and all of the profits will go to Hope for Haiti.  Skyler is an amazing photographer and all his photos speak to a common humanity that unite us.

I had the opportunity to talk to Skyler about his experience in the country after the earthquake and the events he recounted are some of the most amazing I think I will ever hear in my life, for the tragedy of the quake, the selflessness and poise of those on the ground immediately afterward, and the enduring resilience of the Haitian people that continues to today.  I really encourage you to buy the book, not only because it supports a good cause, but because the photos will connect you to people thousands of miles away in a way that no written word can.

The Short List

• Protests continue again in Egypt following Friday prayers, though internet and cellphone connections have been disrupted.  NYT examines Al Jazeera and its place in the recent protests.  Also, the long regarded Muslim youth are growing up.


• China will allow the implementation of property taxes in select cities to curb speculation.


• The Senate Tea Party Caucus needs a membership drive.


• The Washington Post dives deeper into the firing of Juan Williams from NPR.


• The Economist considers expanding cellphone service in poor countries and what it can mean to the citizens of these countries.

Liberals and Libertarians

For those that monitor the blogosphere, and specifically Economist.com's Democracy in America blog, you've no doubt followed the back and forth between Matt Steinglass and Will Wilkinson on any host of issues.  Mr. Steinglass representing broadly the liberal view of things and Mr. Wilkinson the libertarian view of things.  Without a doubt, it's some of the most intelligent debate between these two paradigms ("ideologies" seemed too rigid and not befitting the rationality they bring to the debate).  I, perhaps narcissistic-ly, like to think the exchanges (typically in the comments section) between Ben, Colin (our foil at To Get Rich Is Glorious), and I are like a minor league version of the Steinglass/Wilkinson debates.

Course they still do it best, and when Mr. Wilkinson lays out some tenets of libertarianism including the belief that "Taxation is coercive but imprisoning the guy who nicked your lawn gnome isn't," you can expect that Mr. Steinglass would respond and so he did.  There's a lot of good stuff in there, but specifically on the issue of "taxation being coercive" he notes that: "liberals think of taxation as paying one's fair share for the collective goods that make society feasible. Every society needs collective goods to function, including transportation and infrastructure, education, the justice system itself, and so on... Payment for those goods cannot be left voluntary, as ultimately everyone would welch."

This completely captures why I think taxation is legitimate.  Of course, one could say, and Colin as suggested, that you must have  pessimistic view of people if you believe they won't voluntarily contribute what is needed for the general welfare.  I think that makes me a realist and a liberal.

What Kind Of Day Has It Been

•  The Filibuster lives, rendering the 112 Senate likely of little use.


• Jay Carney is the new White House Press Secretary.


• Egyptian protests seem to be continuing and Mohammed El Baradei returns. And now there are protests in Yemen, too. If this keeps up, maybe we'll have another '48.


• A gay rights activist was murdered in Uganda. Maybe someday these horrific acts of discrimination will abate.

The Short List

• Egypt's stock market takes a hit as protests are called for Friday.  Meanwhile, anti-government protests have also broken out in Yemen.


• Proposed budget cuts for the Department of Defense have Republicans divided.
• DHS is phasing out the color-coded threat level scale later this year.


• A group of rabbis have bought an ad in The Wall Street Journal, asking Rupert Murdoch to censure Roger Ailes and Glenn Beck over the profligacy of Nazi imagery and allusions.


• S&P downgrades Japan.

What Kind Of Day Has It Been

• A lot of hyperbole and nonsense has already been injected into an eminently reasonable State of the Union Address


• Dennis Kucinich is suing the House cafeteria.  


• Idaho passes a nullification bill in spite of clear Constitutional law. 


• Protests in Egypt persisted in spite of a ban. They have even spread to Suez.


• Tunisia is seeking the arrest of ousted President Ben Ali.


• Karzai finally opened Afghanistan's parliament.

SOTU Reaction - TAPs

Jamelle Bouie, writing at The American Prospect, criticizes President Obama for not talking about joblessness or poverty in his State of the Union address last night.  While one can't argue with their absence, one could argue with Bouie's assertion that, "it's abundantly clear that the White House -- along with the Democratic Party -- has all but given up on reducing unemployment."


Slow down a second there.  We are constantly reminded that the impoverished have the least political capital of anyone in this country, and so by Bouie's own framework where the speech is intended for "the lawmakers, interest groups, and party elites that ultimately craft and pass policy," the President shouldn't be speaking to poor, he should be speaking to the folks that make the policy.  When I listened to the speech, I didn't hear the terms "joblessness" or "poverty."  I can't argue that those elements weren't explicitly stated, but when I heard the president giving a full-throated defense of infrastructure spending, education, and the role of government in our lives, I felt like he was talking about helping the poor.  It wasn't direct.  It wasn't specific or explicit, but I thought it was there, sitting just behind his words.


We live in a time when the opposition seeks to redefine the role of government.  It is an opposition that sees almost no role at all for government.  It would have been great to isolate joblessness and poverty.  It would have been amazing to lay out programs to address these issues, but there is a more fundamental challenge the president faces.  A good portion of this country thinks the government doesn't have a role.   That's a bigger issue then verbiage, and I think the president tackled that issue with aplomb.

The Short List

• President Obama gave his State of the Union address last night.  NYT gives its take, as does WaPo and DCExile.


• Egpyt's government has banned further protests after thousands took the the streets on Tuesday.  NYT considers how events in Tunisia, Lebanon, and Egypt have scrambled U.S. foreign policy.


• Russia's upper house passed the New START Treaty be convincing margins.


• A lawsuit against Blackwater (now Xe Services) has been dropped.

SOTU - Initial Response

So before the post-mortem, some thoughts on the three, yes three speeches tonight.  If I get a moment, there might be a fuller analysis tomorrow.  At that point, though, the whole thing will be sullied by the pundit class.


President Obama's State of the Union
Liked it.  I thought he did a great job of reminding people of the role of government in our nation, it's ability to provide investment in roads, but also science and technology.  I thought he struck the right tone that says, "Listen we gotta make some changes and a lot of those changes are going to come from Republicans."  It wasn't transformative and I constantly feel like the rhetorical expectations of Obama are always sky-high.  He can never live up to the expectations, but I remember a time that if Bush spoke in complete sentences, he was a conquering hero.  I would have liked more specifics, but I understand why he wasn't.  Most importantly he has staked out the ground of responsible middle, which could help him get some things done over the next two years, but I wonder, if you make enemies on both sides what does that due to your re-election bid?


Representative Paul Ryan's Republican Response
Vastly better then the responses in recent years and I think Rep. Ryan did a good job staking out the Republican position.  It's a position I greatly disagree with, but it was concise, seemed legitimate, and was focused on spending which is an easy sell.  I thought he provided a great counter-point to the President, though I found wrapping themselves in the patronage of the founding fathers to be unseemly.


Representative Michele Bachmann's Tea Party Response
First, this isn't an actual party.  It's a second Republican response and I question CNN's decision to air it.  That said, I watched it.  There were charts, horribly misleading charts that ignored a fiscal crisis.  Also, who was she speaking to?  Reminds me of a Mitch Hedburg joke where everyone is looking slightly to the left.  On the whole, atrocious.  Scattered, trite, disingenuous, and backward-looking.  Quite honestly, it made Rep. Ryan and Republicans look like adults, while the Tea Party remains people stuck in a middle school civics class.


Again, the pundit class will breakdown every syllable before I wake tomorrow, but there are some initial thoughts.

DCExile's 2011 State of the Union Drinking Game

He shall from time to time give to the Congress Information of the State of the Union

It’s that time of year again, the annual State of the Union address. And, therefore, time for the annual State of the Union Drinking Game. Your rules for 2011 are:

• If you’re at home, sit in an unusual spot--your Congressmen are, you can too--drink half a beer
• During the pre-speech commentary, take one shot of whiskey (if you’re a Democrat) or one shot of tequila (if you’re a Republican) each time “shellacking” is used in the context of the mid-term elections.
• Also during the pre-speech commentary, take a drink from an illicit flask each time the commentators mention “date night” or otherwise make the State of the Union sound like your high school prom.
• Waterfall beginning with the youngest person in the room each time Daniel Hernandez’s 21st birthday is mentioned. (In all seriousness, thank you Mr. Hernandez for saving Rep. Gifford’s life.)
• “The State of Our Union is Strong” = shotgun a beer.
• Every time John Boehner cries, drink one shot of 151. If he’s crying, you should be crying, too. If you’re a woman, hide your tears because only men may cry at the drop of a hat without being too weak to lead. If you’re Nancy Pelosi, leave the room and scream expletives into a pillow.
• Every time Joe Biden looks to be talking out of turn or cussing take a sip of Jameson neat. Slainte, Joe Biden.
• Every time bipartisanship is mentioned, take a shot of tequila with a friend with whom you disagree politically. Optional: Anytime you hear “cross the aisle” conduct a Chinese fire drill.
• Every time someone mentions the State of the Union being a new opportunity for Pres. Obama to connect with the American people, drink a Something on the Side or a Hot Flash Sparkler.
• Every time Main Street is mentioned, take two sips of a Rolling Rock and remember fondly when it was made at Old Latrobe, before it was purchased by Anheuser-Busch InBev.
• Every time Wall Street is mentioned, take two sips of a Budweiser and remember fondly when it was owned by an American company.
• Every time Job Creation is mentioned, drink a Coors Light.  It will be ironic, trust us.
• When healthcare is mentioned, if you are a Democrat, sit very quietly in the corner, chug a beer, and pray that the law survives until 2014. If you’re a Republican, chug a beer, tear up your insurance card and run repeatedly into a wall until you are concussed. Then go to an ER and wait.
• While the President describes a partial freeze in government spending mix and chill a vodka martini. Drink the entire thing before he finishes describing the plan. Optional: eat a bag of pork rinds.
• During any description of clean energy, take one shot of Hendricks Gin for each minute the description goes on. It’s cucumber infused and will provide you with a sense of clean energy. That is, until you pass out from it and wake up hungover. Much like what happens when you buy into a clean energy plan.
• Anytime Samuel Alito is shown talking back to the President during his speech, drink two shots of bourbon: one for the death of decorum, one for the realization he will be a justice on the Supreme Court longer than you will be alive.
• If you live to the GOP rebuttal, mix together all the liquor you can find in your home. Chug it. If it tastes as vile as what Paul Ryan is spewing, you’ve mixed it correctly.
• If you live to the Tea Party rebuttal to the rebuttal, turn off the television. Go to bed.