What Kind Of Day Has It Been

• A PPP Poll shows that 51% of Republican primary voters nationwide wrongly believe that Pres. Obama was not born in the United States. The poll follows Speaker Boehner's cowardly performance on Meet the Press Sunday, criticized by DCExile and William Saletan. 


• Newsweek has an article providing new details on the CIA's targeted killing program.


• Unrest continued for a second day in Bahrain, while the Green Movement arguably has been reinvigorated in Iran.


• A timely Pew analysis discusses pro-democracy sentiment among Egyptians before their revolution.


• Yet more bad news about food prices.


• Update: Friend of DCExile, Reza Marashi, appears on CBC to discuss Iran and protests

With Friends Like These

Something happened last week, which was not widely reported (though we mentioned it in Thursday’s Short List).  King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia had a testy exchange with President Obama, cautioning Obama not to humiliate Mubarak.  This part actually has been reported widely, but there was a second part people have not devoted much time to.  The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia pledged to provide $1.5 billion in aid to the Mubarak government if the Obama administration decided to drop its aid.  This pledge may no longer be valid, but it’s worth coming back to because of what it means to the U.S. concept of allies in the Middle East.

It also ties in to a column David Ignatius wrote in Thursday’s Washington Post.  Mr. Ignatius considers the blind spot the CIA has developed because of their reliance on “liaisons.”  Liaisons are members of the intelligence apparatus in foreign countries.  In Egypt, it’s the General Intelligence Service. It goes by a similar name in Jordan and Saudi Arabia.  While in Pakistan, their intelligence service is called Inter-Services Intelligence, or ISI.  Basically, Ignatius considers how the CIA has been relying on these liaison relationships to provide intelligence on terror threats.  These relationships have had their ups and downs, but has provided the U.S. with vital intelligence (and often legal cover) in dealing with various threats.  But, the reliance on these relationships has left the CIA blind to the unrest and discontent within the countries of our allies.  Part of the terms of the relationships, often times, makes it nearly impossible for the CIA to recruit its own sources or assets in the country.  The agency is beholden to these relationships.  It is a problem that has plagued our efforts in Pakistan for years.

These two pieces together should necessitate a reconsideration of the terms of these alliances.  That’s a big ask, but we need to learn from history.  In Steve Coll’s Ghost Wars, there is a lot of consideration of the interplay between the CIA, ISI, and Saudi Arabia’s General Intelligence Department (GID), and the more you read the more you get the sense that the ISI and the GID are trying to keep the U.S. on the leash.  The CIA was tossed some red meat, and ISI and GID were tossed some cash, but the larger objectives weren’t the same.  In addition to this lack of alignment in objectives, the Saudi regime routed money to jihadists training in Pakistan and Afghanistan long after the Soviet Union’s withdraw.  It has been widely reported that the money coming from Saudi Arabia was used to found madrases in the hinterlands of Pakistan and Afghanistan.

We need to reconsider the terms of these alliances for several reasons.  First, what we want and what the intelligence services of our allies want are not in alignment.  Second, the reliance on the foreign intelligence services has made us blind to what’s going on inside these countries, while at the same time perpetuating distrust and anger in the people of these countries against the United States.  Third, even if we are able to disrupt some terror cells, these allies, specifically Saudi Arabia, is more then happy to publicly break with us, while still enjoying the shade of our security umbrella.

It’s impractical to break these alliances.  It’s not in keeping with the nuance of diplomacy to simply withdraw, but perhaps it’s time for the U.S. to take stock.  What is it we want to accomplish in the Middle East?  Are our current allies aligned with what we want to accomplish?  The revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt are being called part of an Arab Spring.  If that is true, if these revolutions give momentum to the disaffected within the borders of our Middle Eastern allies, the U.S. will be challenged with the same dance we have had to dance regarding Egypt.  It’s time to consider our dancing partners and if we are taking complimentary steps.

The Short List

• Protests continue around the Middle East, in the wake of Tunisia's and Egypt's revolutions.  Egypt's military rulers have selected retired judge, Tareq al-Bishry, to lead a committee in consider constitutional changes.  The Economist's Lexington columnist reflects on U.S. involvement in the Middle East over the past 20 years and opportunities in the future.  Meanwhile, we're not sure if Roger Simon is trying to be ironic or a twerp with a column that confirms Politico's status as a rag publication.


• As Secretary of State Clinton will lay out a State Department plan to foster internet independence.  Meanwhile, Facebook is less revolutionary force and more corporate bystander.  **Editorial Note:  The juxtaposition of these two articles is exactly the kind of blind cyber-utopianism that Evgeny Morozov warns us about in The Net Delusion (DCExile book review forthcoming).**


• A judge in Ecuador ruled that Chevron needs to pay $9 billion to compensate various groups over pollution to remote parts of the Ecuadorean jungle.  Appeals by both the winning and the losing side are expected.


• Over 200 people were killed in South Sudan, after a renegade militia attacked.


• Marc Grossman has been selected to replace the late Richard Holbrooke as AfPak Special Envoy.

What Kind Of Day Has It Been

• The Obama Administration released its proposed FY 2012 budget. Mark Halperin gives big billing to Palin's two paragraph response to the 200 page document--which dropped just 5 hours after the budget's release--perhaps saying more about Halperin than Palin.


• Oil continued its month-long slide. WTI is now about $9 off its nearly $93 high at the end of January.


• Shirley Sherrod is suing Andrew Breitbart.


• Moderate unrest in Iran has caught a lot of attention in the Washington Post and the New York Times. The level of interest is interesting when you consider the relative disinterest at the beginning of unrest in Egypt more than three weeks ago or the beginning of unrest in Tunisia in December. Receiving less coverage are the waves being made by the Palestinian Authority, whose cabinet today resigned en masse. In Libya, a joke going around is that Qaddafi has banned Fridays because both the Tunisian and Egyptian revolutions culminated on Fridays.

Just the Facts, Speaker Boehner

Speaker John Boehner was on Meet the Press yesterday.  Interviewer David Gregory brought up the persistent notion within Republican circles that President Obama was not born in the United States and that President Obama is a Muslim.  Mr. Gregory points to a clip on Fox News where half or more members of a Republican study group believe that President Obama is a Muslim.  Mr. Gregory challenged Speaker Boehner to decide if he has a responsibility to tell the American people the facts.  Speaker Boehner said it’s not for him to tell people what to think, he then said the state of Hawaii has said President Obama was born in that state.  He also said he will take the President at his word when he says he’s a Christian.

I was flabbergasted by this response.  His answer was not an assertion of the facts, it was a statement of faith.  But the discussion wasn’t a matter of faith, it was a matter of fact.  President Obama was born in Hawaii.  President Obama is a practicing Christian.  These are facts and it’s disappointing that the Speaker of the House, the man who will need to work with the White House to address the policy needs of this country, can’t simply say that.  People will say I’m nitpicking, and maybe I am, but when you watch the video you can see Speaker Boehner trying to rhetorically discredit the position he says he believes in.  It was a pathetic display.  Then again, maybe I should be unsurprised.  Paul Krugman has been spending some time in his columns recently to address the Republican party’s rejection of facts and analysis time and time and time again to score some cheap political points.  Maybe I should be thankful Speaker Boehner even said Obama was a Christian, but his half-hearted defense in the face of blatant falsehoods was pathetic and cowardly.  We should be able to expect more.

You can watch the full exchange to make up your own mind here:

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

The Short List

• Over the weekend, the Egyptian army dissolved Parliament, suspended the Constitution, and call for elections in six months.  The army leadership also sat down with a group of the revolution's organizers.


• Protests continue in Yemen, but some of the key opposition groups did not participate.  Skirmishes also broke out in Bahrain.


• In Iran, security forces were deployed to intimidate members of opposition groups that intended to march in a show of solidarity with the people of Egypt.


• The people of Tunisia begin to deal with life after a revolution, as they try to rebuild their government from scratch.


• President Obama's budget for FY2012 will be unveiled today.  The $3.7 trillion plan would cut or eliminate over 200 federal programs, while also making investments in education, transportation, and research in keeping with the SOTU address.


• China surpassed Japan to become the second largest economy in the world in 2010.

Ron Paul Wins CPAC Staw Poll!

Ron Paul won today's Conservative Political Action Conference's presidential straw poll. Rep. Paul was the first choice among 30% of CPAC participants, followed by Mitt Romney with 23%, and a gaggle of potential candidates, none of whom broke 10%. Notably, Mike Huckabee, who won the 2008 Republican Iowa Caucuses, was the first choice for the GOP nomination of only 2% of participants. Sarah Palin, on the other hand, garnered 3% of the vote.

The importance of the CPAC straw poll is certainly questionable. The same poll conducted four years ago was won by Mitt Romney. The actual eventual 2008 GOP nominee, Sen. McCain, came in last place with only 12% support. Sam Brownback, on the other hand, brought in 15%. And, in 1999, Steve Forbes beat out George W. Bush.

What Kind Of Day Has It Been

• One of Revolution. Pres. Hosni Mubarak stepped down, transferring power not to his Vice President but to the Egyptian Armed Forces, ending his 30 year reign. 
• Now Algeria is preparing for mass protests. 
• And Lexington (The Economist) takes stock of the American-Israeli relationship in light of an Arab Spring.
• Prospects for Democrats in Virginia look yet worse.
• The Tea Party-GOP fight continues with Sen. Mike Lee of Utah declaring that he will not back Sen. Orrin Hatch's reelection bid.

Mubarak Out

There was no coup d’etat in time for the Short List, but shortly after it went up, Mubarak was out. Mubarak and his family left Cairo today, as protesters continued to spill into the streets surrounding for the first time both the state television headquarters and the presidential palace. Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman announced that President Mubarak stepped down, leaving the Egyptian Armed Forces in control of the nation.

Whether Mubarak left voluntarily or left under threat of force or ultimatum from the armed forces is unclear. Nor is it clear what will emerge from this interim military government. It is instructive to bear in mind that weeks on from the ouster of Ben Ali in Tunisia, it is still unclear who or what will ultimatum take the reins of government there. 

Now, though, while little is settled by Mubarak's ouster, the mass of people in Cairo celebrating are a truly astounding sight. Two pro-Western dictators have been thrown out by mass protest in one month. As unrest persists elsewhere in the reason, 2011 looks more and more like 1848.

The Short List

• There was not a coup in Egypt overnight, as the army's perch becomes more precarious following Mubarak's cryptic remarks yesterday.  The army is backing Mubarak, but not attacking protesters.  The Obama administration, taken aback by Mubarak's statement, released a strongly worded statement that would look to align the administration with the protesters in a further break with Mubarak.  Breaking news (so breaking it doesn't have a link), Mubarak reportedly has left Cairo.


• House Republicans are openly divided over spending cuts and specifically the pledge to cut $100 billion from the federal budget this year.  Meanwhile, a Pew Research Center survey finds only two areas were 50% or more self-identified Republicans support spending cuts, foreign aid and welfare.

Abbreviated Short List today, sorry folks.

What Kind Of Day Has It Been

• In contrast to expectations--and in a speech that can only be described as disconnected from reality--Pres. Hosni Mubarak did not step down. Something like one million [furious] people are in Tahrir Square right now. A coup d'etat tonight is not out of the realm of possibility.


• Amid the wave of unrest in the broader Middle East, the government of Iran is cracking down on opposition figures, including placing Mehdi Karroubi under house arrest and blocking access to opposition websites. Syria, though, turned Facebook and Youtube back on.


• Another day, another member of Congress declines to seek reelection. Today, it's Sen. Jon Kyl.


• ConocoPhillips is closing an Alaska LNG plant despite upward price pressure from oil markets.

The Short List

• Protests continue apace in Egypt, but the specter of violence has returned as the Egyptian foreign minister declares the army would "intervene to control the country."  Meanwhile, the United States has hardened its calls for reform in Cairo.  Despite the rhetorical escalation, the United States lost some leverage as Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah vowed to support Mubarak and his government if the U.S. withdraws it's aid.


• In the Ivory Coast, the country's recalcitrant leader Laurent Gbagbo, has banned UN radio broadcasts, and the UN's official signal is being jammed.


• Representative Chris Lee (R-NY) resigned yesterday after the gossip site Gawker broke a story of the married Rep. Lee flirting online with women he met on craigslist.  He sent shirtless photos of himself to the woman.


• The Conservative Political Action Conference kicks off today in DC, and seven potential Republican presidential candidates will be there, including Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Tim Pawlenty, and Rick Santorum.  Notably absent are Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee.  None of these hopefuls currently hold an office and DCExile talked about this phenomenon a few days ago.


• Iran's former President Ayatollah Rafsanjani has reportedly broken with the government line on the Egypt protests.  He is quoted as saying, "No dictator can stop popular movements ... People want democracy."

What Kind Of Day Has It Been

• Rep. Giffords spoke for the first time today since her attack last month.


• Sen. Jim Webb, one of the keystone victories in the Democratic wave in 2006, has decided to not seek reelection in 2012. George Allen and his football were seen playing catch in celebration. Politico reports that Democrats are now "eye[ing] Tim Kaine." This is not exactly surprising given the dearth of eligible Democrats to run for the seat. Maybe we'll see a return of Terry McAuliffe.


• Egyptian police are using live ammunition and killing protesters in Wadi al-Jadid.


• DCExile wonders how one says 8 mile in Mandarin? (h/t Nick C.).

The Short List

• Labor unions in Egypt stage strikes country-wide, as demonstrations seem to have new life in recent days.  Nearly 6,000 workers associated with the Suez Canal began a sit-in on Tuesday.  The increase in demonstrations is seen as a rejection of the proposed transition plan put forward by Vice President Suleiman.  U.S. allies in the region are urging the Obama administration not to shove Mubarak out the door.  ** Editorial Note: Some of these allies have urged U.S. action before.  Only Israel is a democracy.**


• A government minister in South Sudan was shot inside his ministry earlier today.


• The House rejects an extension of the Patriot Act.  The vote, which required a two-thirds majority, was opposed by 26 Republicans and supported by 67 Democrats.


• Airport industry organizations are crafting proposals that would divide travelers into three security screening tiers.  This tiering system would speed up the screening process by incorporating information about the individual traveler.


• A human story about the DREAM Act.

What Kind Of Day Has It Been

• Tahrir Square swelled again with protesters today as demonstrator rejected limited reforms offered by the Mubarak regime and the release of Wael Ghonim buoyed their spirits.


• Four days of border clashes between the armed forces of Cambodia and Thailand have gone largely unnoticed. 


• More food price worries.


• More cleavages between the Republican Old Guard and Tea Partiers.

Professional Candidates & the Republican Primary

Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, John Huntsman, and Newt Gingrich are all considered potential candidates for the Republican primary for president in 2012.  In Gallup poll done mid-November, Romney, Palin, Huckabee, and Gingrich were at the top of the Republican field.  What do they all have in common?  They don't currently serve in an elected position.


This has been a remarkable contour of the potential Republican field in 2012.  I had to check Wikipedia to remind myself, but during the 2008 presidential primaries, there were eight Democrats that participated in primary debates.  All held elected office while they were campaigning.  Conversely, twelve Republicans participated in primary debates.  Seven of the twelve did not hold an elected office at the time.  I don't know what it means, entirely.


If I were to guess (and given my record of political handicapping, I shouldn't) I would suspect it reflects the fractious nature of the modern conservative movement and the malaise establishment Republicans feel towards the Tea Party.  What was once lampooned has become fact.  The Republican Party doesn't have any leadership.  They have been able to unite around saying "No" to every question or proposal Obama makes, but beyond that things are a mess.  That can change, as there is an eternity of news cycles between now and the first primary, but right now things aren't well within the party (as evidenced when Glenn Beck and Bill Kristol publicly spar).


What do the above professional candidates have to offer to salve the party?  I'm not really sure.  With the exception of Amb. Huntsman, they have pretty established name recognition.  Their brand is pretty well known among Republicans (and the public) and opinions on each individual are pretty well established.  There aren't many people sitting on the fence if you ask them about Sarah Palin, and I think that's a liability for her and the rest of the professional candidates.  It can be done.  Eisenhower, Nixon, and Reagan (who had a centennial celebration over the weekend he wasn't alive for, but that's another post) all won the nomination when they did not hold an elected position.  However, only Reagan defeated a first-term president.  It's worth noting, the president he defeated was dealing with the Iranian hostage crisis and a cardigan addiction.


Maybe the second half of President Obama's term will present a lingering wound, akin to the Iranian hostage crisis?  Maybe President Obama will develop an unhealthy liking for cashmere?  Barring either of those instances, I would put my money on a Republican that holds elected office right now to win the nomination.  Of course, as Chris Cillizza reminded us yesterday, there are no actual candidates for the Republican primary at this point.

Opportunities in Egypt

As events have unfolded in Egypt over the last two weeks, the U.S. position has been undergoing near constant revision. By the end of last week, however, the United States had apparently gotten ahead of the curve and was no longer subject to accusations of being merely reactive—and, worse, reacting a day behind the events on the ground. Over the weekend, the United States—and other Western governments—apparently settled on a position of supporting the immediate removal of Hosni Mubarak from power and the establishment of an interim government under the newly appointed Egyptian Vice President, Omar Suleiman. The protesters occupying Tahrir Square are unmoved by this proposition and Western support for it.

The appeal to Western governments of the staggered transition from Mubarak to a Mubarakite interim government to eventual elections is obvious. It promises the introduction of a measure of stability and certainty to a tumultuous situation that has upset U.S. foreign policy, flummoxed Israel, and contributed to steadily rising oil prices. Moreover, the apparent U.S. position follows a long history of U.S. policymakers pursuing stability. However, too often in the post-war era the pursuit of stability has come at the expense of U.S. values—as is likely the case here.

This long history of sacrificing values—democracy, liberty, freedom—for the sake of stability and ease of policymaking, has driven the U.S. to support autocratic regimes. It has also left many people with the indelible perception, rightly or wrongly, that the United States serves to oppress them—or at least support their oppressors—particularly in the Arab world.

This linkage between the United States and perceptions of oppression is one of the great strategic threats the United States faces. It has enabled radical Islamists to present an effective and largely unchallenged narrative.

The unrest in Egypt presents the United States with the opportunity to fundamentally reshape its perception in the Arab world. The simple act of lending the protesters in Tahrir Square full throated support is the first step along this path. Such support may not radically alter the fortunes of the protesters—Mubark is likely to go in the near term, and the Western-supported interim government is likely to come about regardless of Western support. However, the impact of the United States standing foursquare with the forces of democracy and liberty is likely to be regional and transformative.

The Short List

• In Egypt, Vice President Suleiman has announced that a plan and timetable for the transition of power has been formulated.  Protesters in Tahrir Square remain, and no word yet from opposition groups.


• Wikileaks, founder Julian Assange, is fighting extradition to Sweden in connection with charges of sexual misconduct.  Part of his defense is a claim that he fears rendition by the U.S. government if he is extradited to Sweden.


• Volkswagen employees have negotiated for a substantial increase to their share of profits.  For some time, the union had accepted modest pay increases for greater job security.


• "Republican delaying tactics, slow White House nominations and a dysfunctional Senate confirmation process," have lead the federal judicial system to a crisis point.


• The Economist gives a view on the ground of Pakistan today versus five years ago.

What Kind Of Day Has It Been

• Rep. Jane Harman is leaving Congress to become the head of the Woodrow Wilson Center.
• Glenn Beck attacked Bill Kristol, accusing Kristol of betraying conservatism.
• Official results from last month's South Sudan secession referendum have been released: more than 98% of ballots were cast for independence. Hours before results were released, President al-Bashir of Sudan declared he would heed the referendum's results.
• Protesters in Egypt remain in Tahrir Square despite yesterday's negotiations, continuing to pressure the teetering Mubarak regime. The Mubarak regime increased public sector pay by 15% today in an effort to cow the protesters. 

The Short List

• Protests in Egypt enter their third week as the protesters try to keep momentum.  Vice President Suleiman has held meetings with around fifty Egyptian leaders, including members of the Muslim Brotherhood.  The view of Egypt from Iran is contradictory as Ayatollah Khameni says the protests are a reflection of anti-Americanism, but the remnants of the Iranian opposition have petitioned to demonstrate in solidarity with the Tunisian and Egyptian people.  Meanwhile, The Economist considers which member of the Arab League is most likely to be next in the string of protests.  **Editorial Note:  I'm encouraged that discussions of transition are underway.  It would seem to suggest we won't face a situation with a power vacuum.**


• South Sudanese troops  mutinied when told to redeploy north, killing fifty people.  This could likely be the first instance of violence as Sudan is set to separate.  President Bashir says he will accept South Sudan's secession.


• The U.S. is arming local militias in Afghanistan, picking sides in a way that would foment resentment.


• AOL will buy The Huffington Post for $315 million, $300 million in cash.  If someone would like to make an offer to buy DCExile, please said offer in the comment section.


• President Obama sat down with Bill O'Reily at the White House last night before schmoozing with J.Lo.

What Kind Of Day Has It Been

• Mubarak's end seems closer, as current a former members of his regime join the protests in Tahrir Square.


• Ginny Thomas, lobbyist.


• In other horrifying news, Sharron Angle went to Iowa.


• The federal government will get first crack at Jared Loughner.

Budget Proposals - Reckless Plans, Real Consequences

House Republicans have proposed $32 billion in spending cuts for FY 2011, on balance it would mean a $40 billion cut for non-security agencies.  If enacted, these would be deep cuts, likely to be highly disruptive to the government’s ability to deliver services in 2012, but there are other proposals out there that make the House Republican plan appear timid by comparison. The Republican Study Committee has proposed a plan that will cut $100 billion in FY 2011.  Meanwhile, Senator Rand Paul has offered up a plan that would cut $500 billion.

Some of the line items from these two proposals:
-  Cut the Department of Education budget by 83% (Rand Paul)
-  Elimination of the Department of Energy (Rand Paul)
-  Elimination of the Department of Housing and Urban Development (Rand Paul)
-  Cut the Department of State Budget by 71% (Rand Paul)
-  Hire one new federal employee for every two that retire until at least a 15% reduction in the federal workforce is achieved (Republican Study Committee)
-  Eliminate Amtrak subsidies (Rand Paul and Republican Study Committee)
-  Eliminate the subsidy to the Washington Metropolitan Transit Authority (Republican Study Committee)
-  Eliminate Corporation for Public Broadcasting subsidy (Republican Study Group)

These are pretty extreme proposals.  I don’t say “extreme” to suggest they are irrelevant, but when you take a chainsaw to the federal programs like this it’s a big deal.  As a corollary, if Congressional Democrats came out and said the State Department budget needs increased by 71% in FY 2011, that would also be extreme.  In considering the extreme nature of the proposals, there are two mutually exclusive dimensions to consider.

The first dimension is the more philosophical question of the proper role and scope of the federal government.  This is an important debate, and the short blips that both the Rand Paul plan and the Republican Study Committee plan provide regarding their proposed cuts aren’t on their face objectionable.  If anything, they help stake out the philosophical baseline they bring to any budget debate as it relates to the role of government.  Let’s debate the role of government, or rather let’s continue that debate.  It is a worthy endeavor.

The second dimension, and the one I take issue with, is the practical question of how these proposed cuts would be operationalized.  What would it really mean to eliminate the Department of Energy?  How many people would be out of work at a time we are already facing 9% unemployment?  What would happen to metro fares if the WMATA subsidy was eliminated?  Would the cost of providing transportation benefits to employees raise to a point untenable to be maintained?  What impact would the increased price have on the thousands of federal workers who use the WMATA system every day?  What happens to America’s diplomatic capacity if the State Department budget takes a 71% haircut?  I don’t mean these questions to be snarky, but legitimately the impact of “here one year, gone the next” cuts like this would be nothing short of cataclysmic.

Could the private sector, charities, and the etheral market forces adjust?  Would Amtrak and WMATA learn to run profitably without subsidies?  That depends on who you ask, but what is obvious is that even if the market can adjust, it won’t happen neatly at the end of September 2011 when FY 2012 starts.  It will likely take years, but the plans don’t account for the transition.  There’s no plan for October 1, 2011.

This is dangerous legislating.  It makes for a great headline and some shallow credibility about “being serious about deficits,” but operationally it’s reckless, negligent, and cataclysmic.  In our effort to get a budget deficit under control in the long term, some hard decisions will need made.  Many federal programs will need to learn to do more with less, some may need eliminated entirely, but the proposals advanced by Rand Paul and the Republican Study Committee aren’t serious.  They are proposals rooted in ideological preferences, not practical considerations of the consequences.  

Thankfully, the odds either the Rand Paul or the Republican Study Committee plan gains much traction are low if the remarks from Republican leaders are any indication (though apparently tax increases, Social Security, Medicare, and defense seem largely off the table), but that doesn’t excuse the plans’ advocates for being reckless with their responsibility to govern, and it doesn’t mean the cuts House Republicans are proposing won’t have uncertain, but real consequences for Americans.


UPDATE: From an avid reader, DOE employed 16,207 federal employees and 91, 294 contract employees in FY2009.

The Short List

• Massive anti-Mubarak protests continue in Egypt.  NYT gives us a visual of the situation yesterday.  The Muslim Brotherhood has declared they will not field a candidate in a new presidential election.  The Obama administration has suggested Mubarak step down and recently appointed Vice President, Omar Suleiman (interviewed yesterday), take charge of a transitional government.  Pro-Mubarak protesters have targeted journalists in recent days. 


• Pakistan's ruling party, Pakistan People's Party, is set to dissolve and resize the government's cabinet.


• A drought in China could put more strain on an already jittery food market.


• A report on the Foot Hood attack, released by the Senate, faults the Army and the FBI.


• The Economist considers Germany's "new Wirtschaftswunder" as their economy has been doing remarkably well.

What Kind Of Day Has It Been

• Protesters in Egypt came back out today despite violent clashes over night. Thugs came back out, too, and apparently engaged in coordinated attacks on journalists. Politico claims that Egypt's unrest is splitting up the alliance between U.S. neoconservatives and Israel.
• Meanwhile, the Palestine Papers have been completely eclipsed.
• The President best Palin but loses to Huck in South Carolina.
• Rep. Giffords' husband says she is improving.

Egypt - What DCExile is Reading

• Michael Rubin at America Enterprise Institute says the White House "must stay one step ahead of the [Muslim] Brotherhood."


• Lawrence Pintak, writing at Foreign Policy, is jumping the gun labeling the situation in Egypt "The Al Jazeera Revolution" a bit in declaring, "The era in which government broadcasters can manufacture reality is as dead as the age of the fax. "


• Fareed Zakaria, writing at Time, gives the best assessment of what's to come in Egypt, admitting the level of uncertainty.  He notes that Egypt may be more inclined to result in an "illiberal democracy" more akin to Russia, then Iran.  He also notes that Islamist populism is an issue because under authoritarian regimes, "[t]he one place they could not shut down was the mosque, so it became the center of political activism and discourse, and Islam became the language of opposition."
  

The Short List

• Overnight saw sustained violence in Egypt.  There are reports that pro-Mubarak demonstrators were bused in and some were paid to demonstrate in Mubarak's favor.  The army stood down and let the violence happen, but appear to have begun to insert themselves between pro- and anti-Mubarak demonstrators.  As the U.S. reexamines its relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood, the first inkling of a partisan rift starts to take form.


• Iran could make nuclear weapons in one to two years according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies.


• Former Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, is releasing a memoir and remains largely unapologetic.


• The Tea Party have set their sights on ousting Dick Lugar (R-IN) in 2012.  Sen. Lugar supported the New START treaty and the DREAM Act.


• Two British companies are making it harder to steal...just about anything.

What Kind Of Day Has It Been

• A violent one. 1500 people wounded in clashes between pro- and anti-Mubarak protesters today. Anti-Mubarak protesters have stayed in Tahrir Square and even driven pro-Mubarak forces away, apparently winning the night if not the day. DCExile's take on the clashes available here. Al-Jazeera's live stream of Cairo here and live blog here.
• Some Sudanese are attempting to emulate the risings in Tunisia and Egypt.
• Fred Karger, Republican Strategist, Gay Rights Activist is making waves in New Hampshire. Note the article's narrative about Krager ("the candidate") not being able to find the appropriate lane of the road. If this guy survives to become more than an also ran, this is the sort of initial story narrative that will be repeated in every article about his candidacy.
• Obama over Palin in Arizona.
• The Kepler Planet Finder has identified 1235 possible planets in our neighborhood.

Aggregated - Egypt Commentary

Links to what I've been reading on the situation in Egypt:

• Ed Husain says to bring in the Muslim Brotherhood.
• Shadi Hamid encourages the U.S. to get past its "Islamist Dilemma."
• Isobel Coleman considers the economic challenges Egypt (and any new Egyptian government) faces today and in the future.

Test of Wills

As autocrats in the wider Middle East make preemptive concessions, the Old Survivor finally responds. The Mubarak regime seemingly inexplicably restored both internet access and Al Jazeera’s broadcasts today. The restoration of both coincided with the appearance of approximately 10,000 pro-Mubarak demonstrators in Tahrir Square—some of whom are apparently plain clothes policemen. As well as a warning from the Egyptian military that protestors should restore normalcy.

The pro-Mubarak demonstrators evidently had to—and were allowed to—pass through Egyptian army barricades. Shortly thereafter, clashes broke out between pro- and anti-Mubarak demonstrators. Then, into the crowd, rode men on horses and camels, beating anti-Mubarak demonstrators. 

The timing of these events is not coincidental. Mubarak is on his way out but is clearly trying to set the terms of his exit--and by turning both news and the internet on, he has assured that Egypt and the world will see that he is still in control, despite the throngs in the street.

The events thus far today indicate that the Egyptian military has reached some sort of agreement with Mubarak as to the timing and order of his exit. These signs do not point to the establishment of genuine democracy. But neither do they signal the defeat of the protest movement. It is likely that, should the opposition not break in the face of the first attack, the Mubarak regime will ratchet up the force and the level of violence over the coming days.

Tuesday’s march was an incredible demonstration of strength but the week-old uprising now faces its first real test.

UPDATE: Perhaps the most important headline you'll see today: