What Kind Of Day Has It Been

• The damage from today's massive earthquake and subsequent tsunami in Japan appears to be relatively confined. A Japanese nuclear reactor is threatening to melt down, however.


• The Obama Administration and its hangers-on continue to death-hug Mitt Romney.


• Wisconsin Recall?


• Shocking. Congress still historically unpopular despite wave election.


• And Rep. Giffords is making a tremendous recovery.

Clapper’s Condemnation and Western Dithering

James Clapper opined yesterday that Qaddafi was likely to outlast the Libyan rebels currently battling him for control of the oil rich North African nation. For his remarks, Clapper was widely condemned and the White House admonished him, claiming that he offered a static rather than dynamic assessment of Libya. Clapper, though, was probably giving a more accurate assessment than many in the West would like to admit.

The Economist reports that, while many Libyans rush valiantly to the front, the Libyan Army units that early on defected to the rebellion have remained on the sidelines, unmoved by the slaughter there erstwhile civilian comrades endure. In the face of such prevarication on the part of the armed forces, and the ferocious counterattack launched by pro-Qaddafi force in recent days, it is difficult to see support for the rebellion by the West to be anything but a fool’s gamble. How can even well-equipped untrained civilians be wagered upon by the West when the Libyan army refuses to do the same?

Yet, there is reason to believe that supporting the Libyan rebellion is the least-bad—even the best—option available to the West. There can, at this point, be no mistaking that the West intends for Qaddafi to be ousted one way or another. Indeed, Western states have said as much—the United States and Britain have called for him to immediately step down, France has extended recognition to the rebels. There is no salvaging Qaddafi-ite Libya’s position in the international community nor the relationship between Qaddafi and the West. What remains are varying degrees of hostility that culminate with outright war between the West and Libya. Thus, the West is left with the choice of taking no action and accepting the continuation of Qaddafi—to say nothing of the slaughter of Libyans—as a fait accompli or taking some action to push the Libyan rebels towards victory and, hopefully, the moribund Libyan defectors off the sidelines.

Merely accepting Qaddafi’s continued rule is a non-starter. The hostility between the West and his regime, as well as history of covert adventurism, makes his presence a threat to the West and to the region. Instead, providing the Libyan rebels with some covert assistance in the form of weapons, training, intelligence, and logistics may not only bolster them in the face of what will only be an increasingly brutal crackdown by Qaddafi but it may also help to get defected Libyan army units into the game—and, encourage other units to likewise defect.

Career soldiers—and generals, particularly—are practical people. They are trained to read the balance of forces, at least on a battlefield, and make decisions that are likely lead to ultimate survival if not success. Libyan army units which have now been relegated to the sidelines of the Libyan civil war will remain there so long as they think it is likelier than not that the Qaddafi regime will survive and that their treason will not be punished, ultimately, by death. Similarly, those units that have remained loyal to the regime will continue to press the attack—or at least not defect—so long as they think the odds are in favor of the regime’s survival. A measure of Western support for the rebels may set off a domino effect of pushing the rebels towards viability, forcing the defected Libyan units into the fight, and enticing currently loyal units to make common cause with their comrades in Benghazi.

The Short List - March 11, 2011

• An 8.9 magnitude earthquake has shaken Japan and sent up tsunami warnings as far away as the U.S. West Coast.


• Saudi Arabian police are out in force, trying to dissuade protests.


• The power-sharing government of Zimbabwe, is under threat as Mugabe's cronies seek to chip away at the opposition partners in government.


• The U.S. has a man in Egypt, of course what that will mean is hard to say.


• Rep. Peter King's hearing on the radicalization of members of the Islamic community provided little substance or answers.  Instead, it seems to have disparaged and disrespect people we need to engage with law enforcement.

What Kind Of Day Has It Been

• Libyan rebels suffered a setback as they were finally driven out of Ras Lanuf by Qaddafi's forces. At the same time, France became the first state to recognize the Libyan rebel government in Benghazi as the legitimate government of Libya. And NATO slowly lurches toward military options in Libya. 


• Saudi police have reportedly fired on Shiite protesters in Qatif. 


• Walker's anti-worker bill passes.  


• TPaw gets Woolson, maybe indicating Huck won't run.


• Utah is poised to inject some chaos in Primary '12.

Cutting the NIH Budget

I'm coming out from under my rock (a self-imposed exile to deal with other, more pressing matters), to point out this fantastic post by Matt Steinglass writing at Democracy in America at Economist.com.

Mr. Steinglass considers the continuing budget resolution passed by the House that will cut NIH funding by 2%, and he then cascades with evidence the short-sightedness of cutting NIH, as well as, pointing out its value to our economy.

Mr. Steinglass's larger point, and a point you hear all over the place these days is this: it's quaint to cut non-defense discretionary spending.  You seem serious about getting the budget in order, but you actually aren't serious.  Getting serious is dealing with entitlements.  So while you set medical research back by a couple decades, you do nothing to deal with the federal deficit.  Rest assured, when the ax falls, plenty of politicians will pat themselves on the back for being responsible fiscal stewards.

The Short List - March 9, 2011

• An update from Libya.  Pro-Qaddafi forces continue to attack rebel elements, while the broader world wonders what to do.


• Rep. Peter King is set to hold hearings tomorrow entitled "The Extent of Radicalization in the American Muslim Community and that Community's Response."  Rep. King has promised they hearings will be fair, and that he seeks to encourage members of the Muslim community to cooperate with law enforcement.  Japanese Americans have come out against the hearing, harkening back to the internment of their communities during World War II.  Rep. King's consideration of radicalized Muslims stands in stark contrast to his support of the IRA during the Troubles.


• Police loyal to out-voted President Gbagbo killed four demonstrators in Abidjan, Ivory Coast yesterday.


• Rep. Michele Bachmann, liar.


• A new version of the Bible will be released this week.

What Kind Of Day Has It Been

• Both the Libyan Opposition and Qaddafi's government denied Qaddafi offered to step down. The Opposition then offered Qaddafi 72 hours to leave the country without facing any ramifications. The United States then undermined that offer by declaring, "Any departure from Libya dos not exempt Mr Gaddafi or his family from any responsibility and accountability for what has occurred." Stunning footage from fighting yesterday (h/t Tal):



•  A new report from the American Academy of Diplomacy and the Stimson Center paints a poor picture of the effectiveness of training for Foreign Service Officers. Put this in the stack of reports indicating the State Department needs more funding.


• Democrats continue to eat their young. Thanks, Joe. **Editors Note: Manchin has made a good couple of years out of twisting with the wind, as anyone who watched his performance during the 2008 West Virginia Democratic Primary can attest.**


• Potential GOP Front Runner, Mike Huckabee, can't escape the he-said, he-says-he-didn't-say cycle arising from Natalie Portman comments he may or may not have said. Poor Huck.


• Anne Applebaum takes on intervention in Libya but really just takes on Krauthammer and WaPo-supported neocon (triumphant) revisionism.

The Short List - March 8, 2011

• In Libya there is a report that Qaddafi has made an offer to a rebel alliance to step down, if granted immunity and safe passage out of the country.  Violence continues has pro-Qaddafi forces strike out from Tripoli, meanwhile the U.S. and the rest of the world wonders what it can and should do.
• Forces aligned with the Somali transitional government regained control of a couple border towns  along the Somalia-Ethiopia border.
• Saudi Arabia continues its practice of silencing dissent almost before it materializes.
• Boeing has completed a sale of 43 aircraft to two Chinese companies.
• "The Gang of Six" tries to up its profile and gain support beyond the beltway to tackle entitlement reform in Congress.
• An open question around Washington is, "who will/can replace SecDef Gates?"  The Washington Post asks this question and provides zero answers, but a good round up of Gates's record.
• The Economist takes you inside Abidjan, as Cote d'Ivoire continues to teeter on the verge of civil war.

What Kind Of Day Has It Been

• The Gulf States call for a No-Fly Zone over Libya. The UK is said to be drafting a UN Security Council Resolution to authorize such a measure.


• The Obama Administration issued an Executive Order restarting periodic status reviews at GTMO. Lawfareblog provides analysis. Detentions are still being legally justified under the dubious heading of law of war detention--notably, the purposes of law of war detention is protective (and temporary), not punitive. There's a fairly good argument to be had that GTMO detention is now punitive.


• In a move that should surprise no one, Maliki's government is using force to stifle dissent in Iraq. I would not hold my breath in anticipation of triumphant Op-Eds in the Washington Post by apologist for the Bush administration premised on this data point. 


• Ensign is out..


• And crude stays up..


• Finally, Warner Brothers fired Charlie Sheen.

Libyan Intervention

As the violence in Libya worsens, the pressure for the West, particularly the United States, to do something to stop the bloodshed and oust Qaddafi intensifies. It is very natural for those of us who side with the people in the face of brutal repression to be desirous of action. Yet any sort of direct action by the United States may work to deny the U.S. of the greatest potential dividend that the Arab Spring presents: an inflection point for perception of the United States in the Middle East.

As Sec. Gates rightly noted last week, even a No-Fly Zone—the most commonly addressed potential direct military response to the situation in Libya—begins with an attack. Any attack or prolonged exposure of U.S. forces to hostile forces will result in exchanges of fire and U.S. soldiers discharging their weapons. And despite the rigorous training of those forces, the best intentions of their commanders, and strict rules of engagement, mistakes will be made. These mistakes will inevitably lead to the deaths of Libyan civilians. Rightly or wrongly, those deaths will be blamed on the United States and they will serve as yet another example of Arab Muslims dying at the hands of American weapons, if not Americans themselves.

Moreover, a No-Fly Zone is of dubious utility. While the Qaddafi regime has resorted to the use of helicopters and aircraft to attack rebel positions, the reporting indicates a sporadic—if deadly—use of these assets. More harmful to the Libyan rebels are the use of tanks, artillery, and heavy weapons accompanying government ground forces as they attempt to retake rebel controlled cities. Furthermore, March and April are the annual peaks in the sandstorm cycle in North Africa, imposing a de facto No-Fly Zone for one out of every three days.

Alternatively, Robert Haddick at FP suggests that the United States return to Jawbreaker—its 2001 plan for intervention in Afghanistan to oust the Taliban. Jawbreaker relied on Special Forces and CIA paramilitaries to make contact with Northern Alliance fighters and coordinate attacks and air support, as well as providing communications and logistical support. In fact, this idea—or a similar idea—of using special forces as a force multiplier for the Libyan rebels may explain the curious British “diplomatic” mission to Libya last week.

Haddick may be onto something but Afghanistan serves as a poor direct analogy to the situation in Libya. Haddick seems ignorant of the fact that, while losing its war against the Taliban prior to U.S. intervention, the Northern Alliance was battle hardened. The Northern Alliance had been fighting the Taliban continuously for nearly a decade and was born from the veterans of the anti-Soviet war. In contrast, the rebels in Libya—though augmented by Libyan army defectors—are enthusiastic but untested and untrained novices. This is not to suggest that coordinated air support, logistical support, and training would not be helpful to the Libyan rebels in their quest to unseat Qaddafi. Though helpful, a Jawbreaker-like plan would not necessarily—nor even likely—deliver the quick results seen in Afghanistan in October–November 2001. It is not a panacea.

Ultimately, the ability of the United States to extract foreign policy dividends from the Arab Spring turns on its ability to provide both rhetorical and concrete support to the forces of democracy without being seen as responsible for the deaths of Arabs. The United States has, to this point, managed the Arab Spring fairly well despite the vigorous criticism leveled against the Obama administration. Revolutions are unpredictable and, when they occur within our allies, cause policymakers substantial consternation. It would be a terrible shame to forsake what dividends we have thus far earned by being goaded into taking unreasonable action under force of arms. Better to quietly—and maybe through intermediaries—supply Libyan rebels with arms and some intelligence support, and allow them to fight their own revolution (see Afghanistan, 1979-89), than to become engaged against the regime directly.

UPDATE: Robert Fisk reports in the Independent today that the United States is tentatively pursuing an approach like that of its intervention in Afghanistan during the anti-Soviet War, feeling out the Saudis to be an intermediary supplier of arms.

The Short List - March 7, 2011

• The U.S. ponders if and how to intervene in Libya, while Qaddafi's delusion continues.  Interestingly, eight captured UK citizens have been released by opposition forces.  Reports indicate they were trying to make contact with opposition groups and seven of the eight were British special forces.


• Hamid Karzai has rejected as insufficient Gen. Petraeus's apology for the accidental death of two young boys in Afghanistan.  This and other issues are sure to arise as SecDef Gates arrives in Afghanistan for a two-day visit.


• The UN Chief weapons inspector can not confirm the scope and intent of Iran's nuclear program do to a lack of cooperation from the Iranian government.


• The Chinese-appointed governor of Tibet has stated the Dalai Lama can not name a successor, but rather, a successor must come through reincarnation.


• Tunisia is set to name an interim government today or tomorrow.  Reports are the members of the interim government will be almost entirely technocrats and members will not be allowed to run in upcoming elections.


• Alberto Granado, Che Guevara's riding partner through South America in the early 1950s, died on Saturday.


• The Economist considers the Republican primary, the lack of declared candidates, and the beat-ability of Obama.

What Kind Of Day Has It Been

• Wisconsin.
• Libyan anti-government forces hang-on.
• Jared Loughner, the guy who tried to kill Rep. Giffords, faces 49 federal charges.
• Egypt's new PM gets the Tahrir Square seal of approval.
• Krauthammer continues to try to equate Neocon nonsense with supporting peoples' movements in the Middle East.
• And Jon Stewart lays some truth. Which reminds me of this This American Life--listen to Act I.

The Short List - March 4, 2011

• Anti-Qaddafi protests sprung up in Tripoli today, but dissipated quickly as reports of cash rewards for tips leading to the detention of anti-Qaddafi protesters.  President Obama made his most direct remarks on the situation, while The New York Times forgets American involvement on the African continent during the Cold War.  At the border of Libya and Tunisia, the refugee situation worsens.


• Reports in Yemen indicate the army fired rockets at anti-government protesters, killing two.  


• The Obama administration has begun to assess the impact Islamist groups will have on the new governments that will result from the Arab Spring.  The impact of the protests in the region become clear as Prince Harry postpones a polo match set to be hosted in Dubai (detect the sarcasm).


• China will increase military spending by 12.7% this year, taking their total expenditure to $91.5 billion, according to a parliamentary spokesman.  If that number is accurate it would represent about 13% of the U.S. defense expenditure budgeted for 2010.


• Unemployment has dipped to 8.9% with the economy adding 192,000 jobs.  State and local governments, facing budget crises, cut 30,000 jobs.


• A federal survey indicates people in the 15 to 24 years old range are delaying sexual activity.

What Kind Of Day Has It Been

• Venezuela has offered--and Libya has accepted--to interpose itself in the Libyan crisis. France has already rejected the offer. Fighting in East Libya continues and charges of mass kidnapping by the Qaddafi regime are emerging.


• The Wisconsin Senate has voted to order the missing Democrats to return to the state or face arrest.


• Egyptian PM and vestige of the Mubarak regime, Ahmed Shafiq, resigned.


• Crude is down slightly on the NYMEX and The Economist considers an oil shock.

The Short List - March 3, 2011

• In Libya, what is fairly obviously a civil war, or armed conflict, continues to rage.  There are reports this morning that three Dutch airmen are being detained by pro-Qaddafi forces after they attempted to evacuate European citizens.  SecDef Gates was on the hill yesterday poking holes in some senators' plans to institute a no-fly zone over Libya.  Gates remarked, "Let’s just call a spade a spade. A no-fly zone begins with an attack on Libya to destroy the air defenses. That’s the way you do a no-fly zone. And then you can fly planes around the country and not worry about our guys being shot down. But that’s the way it starts."


• The Ohio State Senate passed a bill that will weaken public unions.  A new NBC/WSJ poll finds that 62% of Americans find it unacceptable to eliminate some employees' collective bargaining rights to cover deficits.  Meanwhile, the NFL's collective bargaining agreement is set to expire at 11:59pm tonight if an agreement is not reached and one seems unlikely.  


• President Obama has invited congressional leaders from both parties to meet at the White House with VP Biden to work on a budget deal for the remainder of this fiscal year.  Meanwhile the previously mentioned NBC/WSJ poll finds that 60% of Americans are concerned steep budget cuts will impact their family.


• The SEC has brought charges of insider trading against Rajat Gupta, the former of the McKinsey consulting group.


• China warns foreign reporters against reporting any anti-government protests, while Iran has completely dropped off the page in what I would consider an eeriely effective media blackout perpetrated by the government.

What Kind Of Day Has It Been

• More sustained clashes in Libya in which the popular forces, despite being subject to air strikes and artillery, repelled government forces. Two days of sustained clashes using heavy weapons serve as further evidence that unrest in Libya has now become an internal armed conflict. International intervention at this juncture would internationalize that armed conflict.


• A Kosovar shot-up a bus filled with U.S. Airmen at the Frankfurt, Germany airport, killing two.


• The federal government will not be shutdown--at least for another two weeks.


• Fox News is pushing Newt and Santorum to make a decision on 2012.


• The U.S. Supreme Court ruled in favor of the Westboro Baptist Church. The ruling is a strong vindication of the First Amendment. But one service family members will take little solace in as these repugnant individuals blame the deaths of soldiers on all manner of nonsense.

Haiti on Bourdain's No Reservations

I’m a big fan of Anthony Bourdain and No Reservations.  This past Monday he was in Haiti.  It was an inspired show, from a gesture of good will that turns sour to a personal recollection of the aftermath of the earthquake, every segment was devastating, infuriating, and hopeful.  It’s the conflict of all these emotions that makes the episode tough to watch.

After a night of reflection, what strikes me most is how the camera, the crew, Bourdain himself looked to find a lighter side to Haiti, and yet it was elusive.  On all the faces of the people you saw the look of defiance and strength, but not lightness.  In all the neighborhoods they passed you saw the cracks and rubble from January 2010’s earthquake.  I know their is laughter.  I’ve heard about it and I’ve seen it, but for an hour I saw destruction and strength and survival.

As Bourdain says, it’s easy to forget, to push the negative images out of our minds.  The simple thing is to develop Haiti fatigue, or Egypt fatigue, it’s just too simple to turn off the TV, to stop reading the articles, to stop caring.  Development is a long-term effort and Haiti wasn’t so developed before the earthquake, but the quake was a sucker punch laid on a staggering boxer.  Maybe the country is still a little punch drunk.  Much like No Reservations, this post doesn’t end on a happy note.  But the strength of the Haitian people is obvious to anyone who watches for five minutes.  Here’s to betting on that strength.

The Short List - March 2, 2011

• In Libya, Qaddafi's comments would be laughable if not for the death his delusional defiance has brought to his people.


• Pakistan's Minister of Minorities, Shahbaz Bhatti, the only Christian in the cabinet was killed outside his home today.  Early reports indicate Islamist militant groups may be responsible.  Minister Bhatti had been critical of Pakistan's blasphemy law.


• As the world's attention focuses on Libya and the Arab Spring, Ivory Coast's former president, Gbago, appears emboldened in his attempts to violently cling to power.


• Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunis has been removed as head of the Grameen Bank by the Bangladeshi government.


• Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Ergodan surprised many with his defiant remarks in Germany over the weekend.  The speech and indeed the recent calculus of Turkey would seem to indicate the country is looking East, having been spurned by the West, specifically the EU.


• Volkswagen has bought a stake in SGL Carbon, a German firm that produces carbon fiber chassis for vehicles.  The move, coupled with SGL's existing relationship with BMW, suggests that carbon fiber may play a big role in the cars of the future.

What Kind Of Day Has It Been

• An eventful one. Libya's counterattacks have apparently stalled. Italy is sending a humanitarian relief mission to Libya. Libya was suspended from the UNHCR. A No-Fly Zone appears likelier.


• Gov. Scott Walker seems to be losing the public opinion war in Wisconsin.


• Crude is over $100 per barrel on NYMEX. Brent is over $116.


• The House passed a two week stop-gap to avoid a shutdown of the federal government.


• Bob Woodward, pot.

Libya: Case Study in Armed Conflict Determinations

Over the weekend a number of outlets reported that the U.N. Security Council had referred the situation in Libya to the International Criminal Court for an investigation of war crimes. In fact, the Security Council resolution merely refers the entirety of the situation in Libya since February 15, 2011 to the ICC for investigation. Characterizing the events in Libya as war crimes, however, raises the question of whether the events in Libya constitute an armed conflict—a war crime can only occur when the laws of war apply; the laws of war apply only when an armed conflict exists. If the events in Libya do now constitute an armed conflict the existence of that armed conflict then raises the question of when that armed conflict began. The Security Council’s referral to the ICC provides an opportunity for a new forum to address the question of the existence of an armed conflict and refine that question’s contours.

The most oft cited definition of an armed conflict was laid out by the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY) in Prosecutor v. Tadic. There, the ICTY determined that a non-international armed conflict exists where there is “protracted armed violence between governmental authorities and organized armed groups.” The ICTY further refined this definition into a two prong test that examines the organization of the parties engaged in a putative armed conflict and the intensity of the hostilities between the parties. The overarching goal of this test is to distinguish the existence of an armed conflict—to which the law of armed conflict attaches—from a riot or other internal disturbance.

In the case of an internal disturbance, the state’s use of force is limited only by its internal domestic laws and human rights norms. In the case of an internal armed conflict, the state is subject to the customary international law of non-international armed conflict as well as Common Article 3 and, potentially, Additional Protocol II. However, the existence of an armed conflict also authorizes the state to resort to force in a manner normally inconsistent with its relationship with its population.

Thus, the Libyan regime’s resort to force against its population may violate human rights norms without being war crimes because no armed conflict exists. Similarly, the use of force may not be a war crime because the use of force falls within the permissible bounds of resort to force within an armed conflict. Or the regime’s use of force may be both violative of human rights norms and violative of the limitations imposed by the law of armed conflict if one exists—and, therefore, constitute war crimes.

In the case of Libya, what began as an apparently unorganized uprising two weeks ago has become a more consolidated rebellion. The popular forces have formed governance committees, established a hierarchy of control, begun training and equipping their forces with weapons captured from the government, those forces have even donned military garb. These are all factors the ICTY looked to determine whether any particular armed band was sufficiently organized to constitute a party to an armed conflict.

At the same time, the violence between the popular forces and the government appears to be sufficiently intense to constitute an armed conflict. The government has resorted to the use of its regular armed forces and weapons such as military aircraft and artillery against the popular forces. Popular forces are similarly using artillery and anti-aircraft weapons in their fight against the government. The popular forces have fortified the towns and cities that they have taken control of, posting sentries and controlling the highways, and using these fortifications to repel assaults launched by the government.

It appears, then, that an armed conflict is now ongoing between the government of Libya and the popular forces. However, it is also apparent that the organizational facets and the use of military tactics on the part of the popular forces are of more recent vintage than the beginning of the uprising. Until the middle of last week, there was no evident hierarchy of control for the popular forces, the popular forces were only lightly armed until they liberated military bases and had military units defect to their forces.