A blog that focuses on international and domestic politics and economics (with a progressive slant)
Monday, August 8, 2011
Slimming down the U.S. postal service
Friday, August 5, 2011
Adventures in tea-party cognitive dissonance
The Short List - August 5, 2011
- NASA finds signs of flowing water on Mars.
- Syrian army's assault intensifies after protesters show renewed energy on the first Friday of Ramadan. U.S. and European governments have begun to discuss the effectiveness of a boycott of Syrian oil.
- Global financial markets took a beating yesterday, as the markets grow increasingly concerned the global economy could slide back into a recession. U.S. 10-year bond rates fell to 2.4%. It would seem a good time for America to invest in critical infrastructure, but the political will is weak.
- The famine in Somalia has killed 29,000 children in the last 90 days according to U.S. officials. The UN has declared three new areas of Somalia as famine zones. If the numbers seem distant, these photos do not.
- The Chilean miners that captivated the world for two months last year have largely returned to the poverty they knew before the ordeal. And they say the mines are still not safe. Your editor was in Santiago during the rescue of the miners. It was an exciting time in Chile, but you got the sense that it was a story that wouldn't hold people's attention once the last man came up.
- President Aquino of the Philippines and the leader of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front met in Tokyo as a first step in negotiations to end the rebellion in the southern island of Mindanao.
- Congress has reached a short-term compromise on FAA funding, but it's unclear if laid off construction workers would receive back pay. The deal also leaves the main obstacles to a long-term funding authorization unresolved.
- SecDef Panetta, in his first press conference in his new role, warned cutting the Pentagon budget too deeply would undermine the military's ability to protect the country.
- A super PAC called Restore Our Future that raises money largely to benefit presidential candidate Mitt Romney received a $1 million donation in April from a company that formed in March and dissolved in July. The company's physical location, board members, and any staff it might have had on payroll is unknown and many suggest the donation runs afoul of campaign finance laws, as defanged as they are following the Citizens United decision.
- Polygamist leader Warren Jeffs was convicted of sexually assaulting two child brides.
- Will Wilkinson and Matt Steinglass discuss the danger of violent metaphor in policy debates.
- Ezra Klein talked to a Republican mayor in Arizona about the debt ceiling and how cutting federal funds chokes his city.
- Ed Husain discusses how 9/11 led to a splintering of radical Islamist movements and how the U.S. has been ineffectual in countering the non-violent splinter.
- Matt Yglesias considers how broad our military's mission is and how little guidance the military receives from our elected leaders.
Return of an Editor
Thursday, August 4, 2011
The Short List - August 4, 2011
- Tanks continue to roll through Hama, Syria as the death toll rises. The UN Security Council has released a statement condemning the attacks, but not going farther.
- Following the shocking resignation of Turkey's military leaders last week, Prime Minister Erdogan has announced the new military leadership. The military has long served as the secular bulwark in the country, following the system Ataturk put in place in the early 1900s, but the resignation (notably for Turkey, it was not a military coup) could mean the sunset has begun on the doctrinal secularism in the country.
- Tropical storm Emily set to hit Haiti, which remains beleaguered following years of poverty and the more recent earthquake. Hundreds of thousands of Haitians still live in tents and crudely constructed shanties. -
- The European debt crisis continues as bond markets drove up the costs of borrowing for Spain and Italy.
- Furloughed FAA workers came to Washington looking for their Congressmen and women, but most of them were gone as the impasse over funding the FAA continues. The hang up is a provision passed in the House for a long term extension of funding that would make it nearly impossible for FAA employees to unionize.
- Cargill is recalling 36 million pounds of ground turkey, after a salmonella outbreak.
- Gov. Rick Perry, an oil tycoon, and a conservative think tank all think Texas universities should run at a profit, that professors should run at a profit, and that student evaluations should dictate teacher pay.
- Andrew Exum (and your editors) say Ramadan Mubarak, and he notes how this Ramadan may not be as quiet as in recent years.
- Dylan Matthews tells us everything we need to know about the FAA stand off. I can get behind the closure of unprofitable rural airports, but I have major objections to the union-related provisions that would seek to stifle free association.
- Elliott Abrams has 10 questions for the Robert S. Ford, the nominee to be our ambassador to Syria. It's worth noting, only one senator showed up to the confirmation hearing.
- Kent Hughes thinks U.S. treasury bonds are still the safest bet in the markets, but that's not because we're the best bet, it's because we're the least worst bet. America, you least worst investment option since 2008.
- WWHRCD?
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
The Short List - August 3, 2011
- Famine combined with violence has made a bad situation worse, as Somali militiamen, armed by Kenya, but unpaid, prey upon refugees fleeing the famine in the horn of Africa.
- Forces loyal to Qaddafi launched an early morning offensive near the town of Zlitan, pushing the rebels back to an undetermined line at this point.
- The Iraqi government has agreed to begin talks with the U.S. about the possibility of retaining military trainers beyond the end of this year, which will see the draw down of most of the remaining U.S. forces in the country.
- Hosni Mubarak and his sons have pled not guilty as they facing charges of corruption and murder in an Egyptian court today. Mubarak gave his plea from a hospital stretcher.
- Italy moves closer to joining France and Belgium in banning burqas from being worn in public.
- As Congress goes on vacation, the FAA will have to operate until at least early September without funding clarity. The abandonment of the issue leaves 4,000 FAA workers furloughed.
- Despite the debt ceiling deal getting done, major stock indexes fell yesterday over worries about overall economic health. Reaction to the deal internationally has been about as positive as it has been domestically. China's ruling party notes the "debt problem remains unresolved." Meanwhile, political attention will turn to the supercommittee that will be tasked with finding over $1 trillion more in deficit reductions before the end of the year.
- Will Wilkinson and Andrew Exum are right, the Tea Party aren't terrorists.
- Andrew Exum also makes the point that a robust defense budget will require more taxes.
- E.G. writing in at Economist.com asks if the defense budget cuts means the U.S. will return to isolationism. I remain unconvinced, but isn't it a bit interesting that Republicans have been trying to cut foreign aid and the State Department budget for years, but not until the Pentagon budget gets cuts that we talk about a return of isolationism, as if we only project power through the Pentagon.
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
The Short List - August 2, 2011
- Former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak will stand trial in Cairo this week on charges of graft and ordering the killings of 900 protesters as part of the popular uprising the deposed Mubarak. It is the first time in memory that a deposed dictator will face the charges brought against him by the people, and one has to remember that Mubarak was encouraged several times during the demonstrations to leave Egypt.
- The government crackdown in Syria continues unabated with reports that 125 have died in the violence, but the continued violence is drawing increasing scrutiny internationally.
- Libyan rebels are rounding up pro-Qaddafi infiltrators in their midst, following the killing of the rebel military commander.
- Cuba's National Assembly, the nominal governing body of the Carribean nation, has approved a series of economic and governmental reforms that will begin to open up the Cuban economy to its own citizens. The reforms were already approved at the Communist Party Congress earlier this year. I've been reading a biography of Che Guevara, which coincided with Anthony Bourdain's trip to Cuba and it is so interesting how close Cuba got to a truly communist state, but also how unrewarding that has been for the country.
- The deal is almost done, as the negotiated debt ceiling deal heads to the Senate today with a vote expected at noon. In a bright spot of the day, Rep. Gabbie Giffords returned to the chamber for the first time since January. She voted in favor the the debt ceiling deal, but that seemed like a side note. With the passage of the deal in the Senate largely a forgone conclusion, the analysis has begun. The Washington Post Editorial page considers the debt reduction super committee. Will Wilkinson reminds us that the deal cuts very little in the grand scheme of things, which makes this editor think this is clearly a can kick. Some have said the middle won, but this editor thinks no one won, least of all the American public. There were missed opportunities and staunch intransigence which bodes poorly for the nation's future. In the immortal words of Kurt Vonnegut, so it goes.
Friday, July 29, 2011
Boehner angles to remain Speaker, Doom US Economy
In order to have any chance of surviving as Speaker of the House, Boehner needs to produce legislation that is completely unacceptable to the White House and the Senate. Their opposition is a feature, not a bug. Consider how he sold his plan to Laura Ingraham: “President Obama hates it. Harry Reid hates it. Nancy Pelosi hates it. Why would Republicans want to be on the side of President Obama, Harry Reid, and Nancy Pelosi [is] beyond me.”
Why anyone would think that a plan loathed by the Majority Leader of the Senate and the President of the United States would be signed into law is beyond me. And since then, Boehner has moved the plan considerably to the right. But that’s because he’s not legislating. He’s just trying to survive.
What the new GDP numbers tell us about stimulus
Then, Congress passed the stimulus bill, the fall in growth dwindled to 0.7 percent in the second quarter, and, by the third quarter of 2009, we had 1.7 percent growth. “We went from negative to positive at precisely the time that the stimulus was providing maximum benefit in terms of tax cuts and spending increases,” Zandi says. “The numbers actually reinforce the importance of the stimulus in jump-starting a recovery.” What the stimulus didn’t do, however, was raise employment to the levels that the White House had predicted — partly because the economy was in worse shape than anyone, even the official data-crunchers, knew.
Of course, the stimulus only lasted two years, winding down in the end of 2010. And what happened then? As Dean Baker, an economist at the Center on Economic and Policy Research observes, “The downward revision to the first quarter data coupled with the revision of the fourth quarter growth to 2.3 percent from 3.1 percent, suggests that the winding down of the stimulus has seriously dampened growth.” Zandi agrees: “If fiscal policy had simply stayed neutral, the numbers suggest we would have had around 2 percent growth these past two quarters, which isn’t great, but it’s a lot better than what we actually had.” Except fiscal policy wasn’t neutral—it was shrinking. The stimulus wound down, that extra government spending started disappearing, and, with it, economic growth dwindled.
The Short List - July 29, 2011
- The U.S. has claimed that Iran is sending money to Al Qaeda in Pakistan through a Syrian intermediary. The Treasury Department has documents, they believe prove this connection. Iran denies the reports.
- The Libyan rebel military leader, Abdul Fattah Younis, has been killed by assailants in Benghazi. Details remain hard to come by and the situation remains fluid. At the very least, the Libyan rebels have lost their chief military tactician and NATO has lost a favored partner.
- There is fresh violence in Syria today as security forces have fired on protesters in the southern city of Deraa and earlier today an oil pipeline was bombed. Over at Abu Muquwama, Andrew Exum considers how the unrest in Syria damages Hezbollah's legitimacy in Lebanon.
- Speaker Boehner canceled the planned debt ceiling vote last night because he didn't have they votes. His staff is said to be making revisions to make it more palatable to the tea party caucus (which would make it less palatable for Senate Democrats) and House members have been told to stay in DC this weekend and plan to be in session. There are reports that the South Carolina delegation is the issue, and that the SC representatives are taking their marching orders from Sen. Jim DeMint (SC). Ezra Klein considers what's next in this fight, and posits that Boehner, having all but failed in a vote of confidence in his speakership, may move the bill slightly to the left to earn from Democrat votes. Your editor suggested this path a couple weeks back.
- And in more bad news the U.S. economy grew by just 1.4% in the second quarter of 2011. First quarter growth was trimmed down to an anemic 0.4%.
Thursday, July 28, 2011
Req Reading: Tax Expenditures and Catholicism
Tea Party Nation's Judson Phillips is Off Base
The Short List - July 28, 2011
- Libyan rebel fights launched an offensive in the western mountains, and won then lost a government controlled town.
- The EU is warning of the potential for more violence after a flare-up in Kosovo.
- Amnesty International has reported that over 500,000 Ivorians have not returned home despite the ouster of former president Gbagbo. The report details people are afraid of ethnic attacks and notes that atrocities have been committed by supporters of Gbagbo and current Ivorian president Ouattara.
- China has blamed a failed signal(NYT) for the high-speed train crash that killed 39 people on Saturday.
- As reported yesterday, Boehner tried to whip his caucus in to line ahead of today's vote in the House on his own bill to avert American default. The Washington Post considers Boehner The Crier versus Boehner The Arm Twister. Many believe the vote is a test between pragmatists and purists in the Republican caucus. And the S&P would likely keep the U.S. sterling bond rating, if default is avoided, despite the fact that the legislation currently under consideration doesn't fundamentally change the U.S. deficit situation. I break down Tea Party Nation founder, Judson Phillips, op-ed a little later this morning.
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
Boehner to House GOP: Get your a** in line
There never was a surplus
The Short List - July 27, 2011
- The mayor of Kandahar was killed by a suicide bomber today. The Taliban have claimed responsibility. Even has the Taliban claim a string of assassinations, U.S. counter-terrorism officials say Pakistani based al-Qaeda could collapse soon.
- North Korea is demanding a peace treaty with the United States before entering into six-party talks about the recluse countries nuclear program. The Korean War effectively ceased following an armistice agreement in 1953, but the two countries remain in a technical state of war.
- The UK has dismissed the remaining representatives to the Qaddafi government from the country and has recognized the rebel forces as the legitimate government of Libya. For the latest coverage on the rebel advance, check this out(NYT).
- Aid airlift to Somalia have been delayed by UN bureaucracy, according to al-Jazeera. In a strange turn, al-Shabab has banned samosas (during a famine no less) because their three corners could remind people of the Holy Trinity.
- Young Israelis have taken to the streets and set up tent cities to protest high housing prices in Tel Aviv.
- The CBO scored Boehner's plan and found it would only cut $850 billion, but The White House defended the plan, even has it threatened to veto it. Boehner's staff, disappointed by the CBO score, took to their chainsaws to find more cuts. Meanwhile, Reid, Boehner, and McConnell are all inching closer to a deal. There is still some doubt that Boehner could find the votes in the House, especially among the tea party faithful who don't think blowing off the debt ceiling will be a big deal, despite the over 70 million checks that could not go to regular Americans and the warning from new IMF head, Christine LaGarde that default would be, "a very, very, very serious event...for the global economy." This editor wonders how Republicans, and the tea party especially, can be so virulently against any tax increase because they feel it will stifle the economy, and yet seem quite content to let the U.S. default on its loans, which would do far more to wreck the economy.
- House Democrats are seeking an end to the stale-mate that has defunded parts of the FAA.
- Secretary Clinton is urging Congress to rethink legislation that is working its way through the House that would add "onerous" restrictions on foreign aid.
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
The Short List - July 26, 2011
- The man who is allegedly responsible for last week's bombing and shooting rampage in Norway admitted responsibility, but entered a plea of not guilty. He said he wanted to save Europe from "Muslim domination." It is a reminder that "rhetoric is not cost free" whether espousing Muslim or Christian superiority.
- Hamid Karzai encourages Afghans to realize NATO support is winding down, but also says any future NATO or US military involvement must be done on Afghan terms in a double game that seeks to return to the country to the darkness that engulfed it during the Taliban's rule.
- Thousands of land mines slows the progress of Libya's rebels.
- India and Pakistan are set to begin peace talks tomorrow. The continued enmity between the two South Asian countries has prompted more then one nuclear showdown and distracted Pakistan from the threat within its borders for years.
- The UN will airlift food to the famished regions in Somalia this week.
- Dueling speeches were broadcast over the airwaves last night in the debt ceiling/deficit debate. Obama called for shared sacrifice, while Boehner said Washington spending is out of control. House GOP freshmen are apparently out of ideas after Cut, Cap, and Balance is tabled in the Senate. It's worth noting that the federal government hasn't been in compliance with the figures in Cut, Cap and Balance since the 1950s, which is to say neither Reagan, nor either Bush would have been in compliance. Meanwhile, market watchers are waiting for the bond market's patience to run out. Cataclysm to follow.
- Meanwhile, in another area of no compromise, the FAA has had to furlough employees as Congress has not passed an extension for funding. It would be the 21st such extension, but it has been sullied by strings attached by the House that the Senate does not agree with.
Monday, July 25, 2011
The President's Address - Alternative Version
Friday, July 22, 2011
The Short List - July 22, 2011
- Protests have broken out in Syria following Friday prayers in solidarity with the besieged residents of Homs.
- Al-Shabab rejected the UN claim that the ban on aid had been lifted, condemning the residents in al-Shabab territory to face a dire famine.
- Qaddafi refused to negotiate with the Libyan rebels, according to an audio message released yesterday.
- The EU has reached a deal to attempt to shore up Greece's finances and avoid default. Greek debt, as a percentage of GDP stood at 143% last year.
- North and South Korea have expressed an interest in restarting 6-party nuclear disarmament talks.
- Countdown to economic calamity continues. Obama and Boehner are reportedly working on a deal that would cut $3 trillion from the debt over 10 years, but includes no immediate tax alterations. Democrats are furious. Ezra Klein focuses on market distorting tax policies Republicans refuse to consider. George Will pantomimes Mitch McConnell and Nero at once. Charles Krauthammer doesn't like any deal he's heard, but likes Obama less. The Onion puts it in perspective. U.S. government debt as a percentage of GDP was just shy of 60% last year.
- The formal end of Don't Ask, Don't Tell will come today.
- Jose Vargas has had his license revoked in Washington.
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
The Short List - July 20, 2011
- As the Murdochs apologize, but deflect responsibility, Prime Minster Cameron came in to Parliament yesterday for his verbal drubbing as well.
- Two representatives of the Kashmiri American Council have been accused of funneling millions of dollars from Pakistan's ISI to lobbyists in the United States to gain favor with U.S. legislators in both parties. The charges are likely to do no good to already severely strained US-Pakistan relations.
- A headscarves rift appears to be forming between Iran's clerics and President Ahmadinejad, according to The Washington Post. This editor doesn't don't a rift, but wonders if the headscarves issue is more smoke then fire.
- The last war criminal sought by the UN Balkan war crimes tribunal has been arrested according to Serbia's president.
- The FBI is in contact with several Syrian activists in the United States, for fear they may be under increased threat given the violence currently in Syria.
- The newly reformed Gang of Six has released a debt ceiling/deficit reducing plan that is gaining traction in the Senate and has garnered qualified support from Speaker Boehner and President Obama. Representative Cantor, however, remains intractable on revenues. Details continue to emerge about the plan, but if fully implemented it would reduce the deficit by $3.7 trillion dollars over 10 years and would bring debt as a percentage of GDP down to 70% in the same time frame. Ezra Klein breaks down the deal a bit more. The Washington Post Editorial calls the proposal a "new hope" sans Luke Skywalker. In the background of the Gang of Six proposal is a new Washington Post-ABC poll that shows there's plenty of blame to go around, but Republicans are considered more to blame. Perhaps most notable, 79% of independents don't think Republicans are willing to make a deal.
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
The Short List - July 19, 2011
- "Death squads" are moving through the streets of Homs in Syria, according to people on the ground. Reports of the dead range from 7 to 30.
- The U.S. has told representatives to Qaddafi that it's time to leave. This follows on the heels of last week's recognition of the rebel government by the U.S.
- Karachi is trying to calm itself after an outburst of ethnic violence in Pakistan's largest city.
- Rupert and James Murdoch will face Britain's Parliament today in connection with the phone hacking scandal.
- FIFA is investigating wide spread match fixing(NYT) in soccer, organized by criminal syndicates in southeast Asia.
- Republican lawmakers are pushing ahead with a balanced budget constitutional amendment, which no one expects to pass (and would be disastrous for the country, in this editor's opinion). Meanwhile, the Senate is trying to find compromise. Ezra Klein explains Keynes to a generation that's gotten it wrong.
- Bank of America reported a $9.1 billion loss in the second quarter, after a mortgage security settlement payout to investors. Goldman Sachs reported a $1.05 billion profit(NYT), which is better Y2Y, but didn't meet expectations.
- Borders is seeking permission from a judge to liquidate the remaining 399 stores the company still has open. Liquidation would spell an end to the company and would cause the companies 10,700 employees to lose their jobs.
- Cisco Systems will cut 6,500 positions, or 9% of its workforce, in an effort to reduce costs. 2,100 will leave through early-retirement, while 4,400 will be laid off.
Monday, July 18, 2011
The Short List - July 18, 2011
- The head of Scotland Yard has resigned following the arrest of Rebekah Brooks in connection to the ever widening phone hacking scandal. Rupert Murdoch and his son James are set to appear to before Parliament this week.
- The U.S. is accepting applications for $65 million in grants to promote democracy in Egypt.
- Targeted assassinations of Karzai associates continue in Afghanistan, as the Taliban quickly claims credit.
- Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's deal is gaining momentum as Congress is set to spend the week engaged in kabuki theater, heading towards an increase in the debt limit. The White House still hopes for a big deal, but as Jacob Lew asked on Meet The Press yesterday, "Do we have a partner to work with?" Sadly, your editor does not believe they do.
- Presidential hopefuls burned through $32 million so far, in a new campaign spending report. Newt likes private jets, but not paying the bill. Mitt spent 18% of his budget on administrative costs. And President Obama spent about $5 million organizing fundraisers. Beyond the horse race and personal proclivities these kind of disclosures reveal, it concerns this editor the volume of cash spent in politics these days.
Friday, July 15, 2011
The Short List - July 15, 2011
- The United States stepped up its intervention in Yemen, using combined drone and conventional air assets to strike a police station overrun by militants in Abyan province--the nature of this operation would indicate the drones were regular U.S. military and not CIA operated. At the same time, different militants ambushed a government convoy near Taiz.
- U.S. recognition of the Libyan rebels inches closer as the so-called Contact Group acknowledges the Transitional National Council as the legitimate representative of the Libya. Libyan rebels briefly lost control of Qwalish, Wednesday, but retook it by overwhelming Qaddafi's troops, demonstrating new found ability to coordinate and stand-and-fight.
- McConnell and Reid are working on a debt ceiling plan of their own. Meanwhile, last night, the President gave everyone 24-36 hours to figure it out.
- Cain doubles down on anti-Muslim bigotry.
- Corn for ethanol overtakes corn for food.