Tuesday, September 13, 2011

What Kind Of Day Has It Been

International
  • Today's Taliban raid in Kabul continued into the night. The Taliban struck the Afghan Intelligence HQ, the US Embassy, and NATO military headquarters.
  • Mustafa Abdul Jalil gave his first speech in Tripoli today, outlining the NTC's vision of post-Qaddafi Libya.
  • Oh, the Euro.

Domestic
  • Democrats wait with bated breath for the outcome of NY-9 special. Regardless of who wins, the GOP has already won the message war. 
  • And the White House has managed five days of message discipline. This may be unprecedented in the Obama White House (@carlyhawk fact check?). There's hope for the re-elect yet.
  • Warren is in. If I were Scott Brown, I'd be cursing my GOP refusenik brothers in the Senate.
  • US poverty rate reaches staggering proportions.

The Short List - September 13, 2011

International
Domestic

Monday, September 12, 2011

The Short List - September 12, 2011

International
Domestic

Friday, September 9, 2011

The Short List - September 9, 2011

International
Domestic
  • President Obama laid out a jobs plan last night that would utilize a combination of tax cuts and spending to try and get people back to work.  Ezra Klein outlines the major provisions of the plan, while Chris Cillizza likes the "agressive tone" the president used, but doesn't believe Obama won over any independents last night.  Speaker Boehner says the plan merits consideration and Rep. Bachmann disliked the plan almost before she even heard it.

  • Over two dozen Senators gathered together to create a frame work to take to the Supercommittee that would cut more then the mandated $1.5 trillion from the deficit.

  • Wal-mart has brought back layaway shopping for the holiday season on select items.

  • Amazon and the state of California have reached a deal that will require Amazon to start collecting sales tax within a year.

Thursday, September 8, 2011

The Short List - September 8, 2011

International
Domestic
Pundit's Corner

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Live Blogging the GOP Presidential Primary Debate

Hey everybody, we're going to try something a little different as I'll be live blogging the Republican presidential primary debate tonight at 8pm ET.  The debate will be broadcast on MSNBC and is sponsored by NBC News and Politico.  Ben may also be able to join, but he has actual work to get done.

So tune back in to DCExile and this post around 8pm tonight.  If nothing happens it's because the computer outsmarted me.


The Short List - September 7, 2011

International
Domestic
Pundit's Corner

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Government Investment Can Mean Many Things

Following up on my post from earlier today, which has touched off a conversation about the need for infrastructure investment in the comments section between your editor and Colin, comes this post from Matt Yglesias.  Yglesias's point is that we've stopped investing in government infrastructure like we used to, but what jumped out at me was not the lines on the graph but the title: "Our Aging Capital Stock (average age of structures, equipment, and software)."

It got me thinking, what is the condition of the IT systems the government has right now? What's the average age of a PC that sits on the desk of a federal employee?  Have we considered different IT solutions for data and database management?

Just as Paul Krugman notes(NYT) that we're in a situation where the issue isn't a lack of cash, but a lack of motivation.  What sort of stimulative effect would we have it we upgraded every computer on every desk of every federal employee?  I don't know with any certainty, but as it becomes increasingly clear we have a lack of demand, we should start thinking about different ways to generate some.


**To be clear, I'm not advocating a bunch of blank checks and investment has strings attached, but I don't think we've done what we need to pick up the slack in demand.**


UPDATE:  
Peter Orszag thought IT investment would be a good idea back in 2010 (h/t CH):
Public sector productivity growth matched the private sector's until about 1987. But something changed in the late 1980s. From 1987 until 1995, private sector productivity rose by an average of 1.5 percent a year. Meanwhile, the public sector's productivity rose by only 0.4 percent per year - or about one-third as much - over roughly the same period...The best analysis we have, from the McKinsey Global Institute, suggest that since 1995 it appears that the public sector continued to fall behind the private sector which saw productivity surge during that period. 
Some of this increasing gap has to do with advances in management techniques in the private sector. Some, undoubtedly, has to do with the challenges the federal government has in attracting and hiring top talent. Keep in mind that the average time it takes to hire a new federal employee is 140 days - and by that time, many of the best candidates, understandably, have gone elsewhere.
But I believe that the biggest driver of this productivity divide is the information technology gap. At one time, a federal worker went to the office and had access to the most cutting-edge computer power and programs. Now, he often has more of both in a device clipped to his belt.
Closing the IT gap is perhaps the single most important step we can take in creating a more efficient and responsive government.

Markets Feeling Good About the U.S. in Short Term

The Economist, as always, publishes their daily chart and today it's about the riskiest and safest bets on government debt over two years.  The results may surprise you:
Source: http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/09/government-bonds
What this means is that contrary to the popular narrative, we are not broke and we certainly aren't the next Greece.  The markets seem content with the short-term prospects of the United States economy, in fact it only feels better about Singapore, Japan, and Switzerland.

It also means it's time to invest, heavily.  I've said it before and I'll say it again, the federal government needs to borrow money right now because the rates are good and the need for infrastructure improvement is great.  If private industry insists on sitting on a stack of cash, then the government should step in.  It isn't going to cost us very much in the future.

The Short List - September 6, 2011

International
Domestic

Thursday, September 1, 2011

The Short List - September 1, 2011

International
Domestic
  • The President moved his jobs address to a joint session of Congress in deference to the Republican debate in South Carolina. This Editor has mixed feeling about this choice because the President will doubtlessly be pilloried by Republicans during that debate -- heck, this Editor can imagine a day when this choice is turned on the President as an example of his weakness/failure to lead or, worse yet, because it conflicts with the first game of the NFL season, an example of his secret anti-Americanism. 
  • Usually in a case like this, the government asserts the contract branch of the state secrets privilege.
  • You can take the boy out of the Naval Observatory, but you can't take the horrific dishonesty out of the boy.
  • Bachmann won't play in New Hampshire.

Wednesday, August 31, 2011

The Short List - August 31, 2011

International
Domestic
Pundit's Corner

Tuesday, August 30, 2011

What Kind Of Day Has It Been

International
  • NTC forces (better, Jason?) have given Qaddafi loyalists in Sirte a Saturday ultimatum to surrender or face assault.
  • Sudan. Still not good.
  • Our Man in Kabul has apparently pulled the rug from under us once again--this time in reportedly effective talks with the Taliban. This Editor's opinions about ill-behaving client states is well known.
Domestic

George W. Bush, 9/11, and Intelligence

I plugged for the National Geographic interview of George W. Bush yesterday in The Short List.  Hopefully our (limited) readership watched it last night, because I think it's important for a few different reasons.  The interview kicks off two weeks of solemn commemoration of the events of 9/11, how it changed our world, how the United States changed, and what it might mean for the future.  It's fair to say that the events of that day, unbeknownst to me at the time, changed my life and I will always remember where I was, and what I felt watching the second plane hit.

The interview splices in images and video from 9/11 and the days immediately following.  The feeling in the pit of my stomach is as visceral as it was 10 years ago when I saw it happen live.  Anger, sorrow, fear, anxiety all flash through my body every time I see the second plane hit.  And you can tell that discussing 9/11 still gets to President Bush.  That unmistakable mix of anger and sorrow is evident in his eyes.  He discusses why he lingered in a Florida elementary classroom after Andy Card told him about the second plane.  He discusses his frustration in being shuttled around the country and not being allowed to return to DC immediately.  He discusses how Saddam Hussein's name was mentioned on September 11th, though he doesn't indicate a particular member of his senior staff.  He also spends a fair bit of time decrying the communication equipment available to him onboard Air Force One.  He discusses a great many things, but two things really stood out to me.

First, as if a mantra he discusses how he never planned to be a "war time president," and how America was now "at war."  This could be legacy protection, but it could also be that he legitimately felt he was suddenly transformed into a war time president in the mold of Lincoln or Roosevelt (he draws no such comparison).  I've had a hard time, in retrospect, considering the acts of 9/11 and our actions following as a "war."  And I fear that President Bush wraps himself in the "war time president" cloak so we might dismiss the extra-judicial actions of his administration in the years that followed.

The second thing that struck me was toward the end of the interview.  He says "I was not acting strategically," and follows up saying he believed what he was doing was protecting the American people.  I know that 9/11 was an extreme case of terrorism, but to think that in the following seven years that the President of the United States did not act strategically just dumbfounds me.  Certainly in those first 24 to 48 hours it is about command control and strategy comes later, but the admission that the whole response was not strategic seemed to confirm for me a bias I had before the interview that the interview just reinforced.  President Bush was not up to the challenge of the situation.

If you listen during the interview you notice how little he decided as President.  There are briefings.  Information is coming in.  Things are happening, but there doesn't seem to be any decisions that began with President Bush.  He was a passenger to his own administration on that day.  Perhaps it was due to the poor communication system on Air Force One.  Perhaps the military had a protocol for a terrorist incident of this magnitude and it was implemented step-by step.  Perhaps the gears of the state were well-oiled and responsive to this kind of shock.  I have my doubts.  And so what emerges is the image of a figurehead president being shuttled around the country while the serious people make decisions and secure America.

In a post at Democracy in America today, E.G. posts commentary on the recent exploration of Gov. Perry's intelligence.  Towards the end of the post he says something that captures a bit of my reaction to the interview.
So this kind of examination leads us to a broader question: even if we could assess a candidate's intelligence... how clever does a candidate need to be, and how important is intelligence in a president? It's tempting to say that a person elected president can't actually be stupid, because otherwise we would be hard-pressed to explain how they got to be president.
And yet it wasn't intelligence that Bush was lacking in the interview.  He knew what was going on, the gravity of it, and that action needed to be taken.  E.G. continues:
I would prefer a president who isn't overtly anti-intellectual or hostile to empirical analysis, both of which suggest small-mindedness and ideological devotion.
So would I, and I don't think President Bush is hostile to empirical analysis as it related to terrorism, but by his own admission he did not approach the issue of terrorism strategically.  That's why his account of the day makes him sound like a bystander.  He was overwhelmed by the situation, and could not break it down strategically.  He knew something needed to happen or rather that many somethings needed to happen, but the sequence eluded him. The interview, I think, reveals a man with good intentions for his actions on 9/11 and in the years that followed, but a man sorely out classed by the gravity and complexity of the problems that led to 9/11 and the consequences of our responses.  

The Short List - August 30, 2011

International
Domestic

Monday, August 29, 2011

What Kind Of Day Has It Been

International
  • Qaddafi's wife, daughter, and two of his sons have sought refuge in Algeria. The NTC describes Algeria's giving refuge as an act of aggression.
  • Reports of the death of Al Qaeda's number two may have been greatly exaggerated. Or maybe not. We don't know.
  • For the second time in two weeks, Turkey claims to have killed well over 100 PKK in raids.
Domestic
  • Politico asks if Rick Perry is dumb. Outstanding -- remember when we talked about whether W was dumb and he won the Presidency -- maybe we should focus more on the fact that he's out of his damn mind than question whether he's dumb. Praying for rain may sound stupid, but when it mobilizes thousands, it ain't.
  • U.S. District Court Judge Sharon Blackburn has temporarily enjoined enforcement of Alabama's tough new anti-people of color anti-immigration law.
  • Hey, maybe this has something to do with the unpopularity of Obamacare?

The Short List - August 29, 2011

International
Domestic
  • The East Coast is trying to dust itself off after Hurricane Irene lashed the coastline and point further inland.  there are 24 deaths reportedly linked to Irene, but the damage and devastation have thankfully been far less then originally predicted.

  • Former President George W. Bush was interview by National Geographic about 9/11 and the interview premiered last night.  It will re-air tonight at 9pm ET and this editor strongly recommends you watch.  I'm also planning a commentary to post today or tomorrow.

  • Meanwhile, Dick Cheney has a book coming out that he believes will have "heads exploding" in DC.  Former Secretary of State Colin Powell took his tarnished credibility to Face the Nation yesterday to dispute several of the claims Cheney makes in the book In My Time.  Your editor takes that swipe as someone who believed going to Iraq was the right decision because of Sec. Powell's presentation to the UN Security Council.

Friday, August 26, 2011

What Kind Of Day Has It Been

International




Domestic

The Short List - August 26, 2011

International
  • Syrian protesters are incredible.
  • Yet another Japanese PM resigns.
  • Mexico's armed conflict, still under-reported.
  • Israeli and Egyptian security cooperation will lead to the re-militarization of the Sinai.
  • And the AU (read: South Africa) is on the verge of recognizing the TNC as the government of Libya -- I wonder if AU dysfunction in the face of the Libyan revolution opens space for greater Western political intervention in Africa, maybe lifting the bar to Western-first recognition of Somaliland.
Domestic
  • People up and down the East Coast are seeking Shelter from the Storm as Irene bears down.
  • Arizona is challenging preclearance. I think the suit is a non-starter, if the Court wanted to strike down preclearance it would have in Northwest Austin Municipal Utility District 1 v. Holder. Instead, the Court determined that all districts should have the ability to bail out of preclearance. Why so few--maybe no?--districts have bailed out is a question that some Voting Rights experts ascribe to the cover preclearance gives localities that engaged in horrific discrimination in the pre-VRA era.
  • Pataki out.
  • Swampland sees Ron Paul as Rodney Dangerfield.

Thursday, August 25, 2011

What Kind Of Day Has It Been

International

Domestic

The Short List - August 25, 2011

International
  • With attention focused on Libya, African states are struggling to respond to the famine in the Horn of Africa -- a famine preventable were there any government in Somalia to speak of.
  • Libyan rebels besieged in Misurata were aided by a surveillance drone of Canadian manufacture. And the Arab League has recognized the TNC -- in many respects, the Arab League has played midwife to the new Libya, without its endorsement there likely would have been no No-Fly Zone.
  • Sri Lankan is set to end its Emergency
  • Despite raids killing more than 100 PKK in the last week, a bombing in southeast Turkey has wounded 2 Turkish soldiers.

Domestic
  • Showing more rationality than they're often credited with, 51% of the American people blame Bush for the economy. Now if this would only translate into a recognition by elected leaders that you can't cut your way out of a near depression.
  • Playbook reports that Perry will make his debut at the Reagan Library, joining that great contest that occurs every four years -- no, not the straw poll, not the caucus, not using an intermediary to spark racist fears in South Carolina; no, friends, but the out-Reagan your rivals while mostly ignoring Reagan's record contest! My money is on Bachmann; she's just crazy enough.
  • Huntsman is still registered to vote at the Governor's mansion (where he has not lived since he left office on August 11, 2009) -- this is outrageous! Do we know if cast a ballot in 2010? That's voter fraud! Just imagine the outcry if he were a member of an underrepresented population in a swing state . . . actually, it's been two years since he left the mansion, if he were a member of an underrepresented population in a swing state he would have been expunged by now, whether he still lived at the address or not.
  • Shocking: Gay people live outside of San Francisco and Greenwich Village.