Wednesday, July 1, 2009

Fearing a Counter-Coup?

Does Ahmadinejad fear he'll be deposed if he leaves Iran?

Unpopular leaders whose positions are tenuous will sometimes refuse to the leave their country for fears of a coup. Such fears are not unfounded. In cases like Libya in 1969, Uganda in 1971, and, more recently, Thailand in 2006, the then-leaders left their respective countries for such things as a vacation at a Greek resort or for the Commonwealth Heads of State Conference only to find that the military had removed them from power during their absence.

In that light, does it tell us something about Ahmadinejad’s confidence in his position that he has abruptly cancelled his trip to Libya to attend the African Union summit? Perhaps we should take it as an indication that despite the Guardian Council endorsing his re-election, the pressure from the Street, from Mousavi-who has just, finally called for a national strike-and from clerics of all stripes is taking a toll on Mr. Ahmadinejad.

Or maybe Qaddafi just reminded Ahmadinejad how he came to power.

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