Tuesday, November 2, 2010

About Tonight

Ah, the First Tuesday in November, E-Day. A few thoughts and predictions about this evening's outcome:
- GOP picks up between 35 and 38 seats in the House.
- Joe Sestak and Patrick Murphy win in PA
- Harry Reid hangs onto his seat.

One overarching comment directed to the Obama Administration: a mid-term defeat does not 1994 (nor, ultimately, 1996) make. The Republican Congressmen and women elected tonight are not interested in legislating and, therefore, are not interested in compromise. I would stop looking at the post-1994 Clinton White House as a model.


Colin said...

I don't think any of these predictions will come true. Sestak is toast, with even a PPP poll (which leans Dem) from this past weekend giving Toomey a 5 point lead. Toomey also leads in the last 6 polls tracked by Realclearpolitics. If Sestak wins it will reflect a massive failure on the part of pollsters. I suppose one could argue that Sestak will prevail because of a superior GOTV effort, but that doesn't seem likely in the face of a voter enthusiasm gap that Gallup reports today as being +19. In comparison in 1994 and 2006 it was +9.

With Toomey and Corbett both comfortably ahead Murphy won't get any help from the top of the ticket and goes down to defeat.

Same logic with Toomey applies to Angle, with the polls unanimous in their verdict, although the margin will be narrower. This will be the second Dem Senate leader to go down in the last six years.

GOP pickups range from 58-63.

But I agree about the last part, as there will be no compromise. But I think Obama is too much of an ideologue anyway, there is no way I can see him stomaching Clinton-style triangulation. A Tea Party influenced GOP vs. a leftist president should help crystalize the debate,

Jason said...

Yikes, a minimum of 53? I'm a crappy election handicapper, but 53 seems excessive. I don't share Ben's optimism that the Dems will hold the house.

Also, Obama as ideologue is pretty laughable.

And finally, God forbid there be compromise. Clearly the definition of being serious is to be uncompromising in the face of intelligent differing opinions.

I'm with Krugman. Time to stock up on provisions.

Colin said...

No, my minimum is 58, not 53.

Obama is an ideologue. His moves are invariably towards bigger government. Frankly I don't see how anyone can view him as anything other than a committed leftist.

BTW, it is just after 6 and no polls have closed yet. However, I will buy Ben lunch at the place of his choosing if ANY of his predictions come true.

Ben said...

Sounds good, Colin.

I'm with Jason as to whether BHO is an ideologue--but we can debate that tomorrow.

Colin said...

Well, looks like Sestak and Murphy have lost, and suffice to say Republicans will take more than 38 seats. Reid may just hold on, however.

But I think my prediction on the House will end up being very close to correct.

Ben said...

Reid did hang on. And Sestak was close. Murphy breaks my heart.

Even you under-predicted the scale of the GOP victory, which of course means I was horrifically off base. I just didn't think it would be this big--I didn't think folks like Dingell or Ike Skelton or, yes, Murphy would lose.